Value bet: Villarreal II to win @ 1.77 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultVillarreal II to win ✓62% · @1.77
Double chanceVillarreal II or draw ✓85% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.47
Villarreal II vs Hércules: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
11:00 WAT, Sunday 3 May: Villarreal II v Hércules in the Primera División RFEF Group 2, played at Estadio de la Ceramica. In the table, Villarreal II are 2nd, among the top four, on 22 points after 11 matches; Hércules are 7th (upper half) with 17.
Current form
Villarreal II, last 5: WWDLW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Alcorcon, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.
Hércules, last 5: LLWLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Cacahuatique, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Villarreal II, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.2 for Hércules.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Villarreal II 1.9 xG, Hércules 0.7 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Villarreal II 62%, draw 23%, Hércules 15%.
Lower-risk option: Villarreal II or draw (85%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Villarreal II to win @1.77 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Villarreal II 2–0 Hércules. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Villarreal II62%fair 1.61 · @1.77
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @3.40
Hércules15%fair 6.54 · @4.10
2.63Expected goals
1.88Villarreal II xG
0.75Hércules xG
52%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Villarreal II 1.9 – 0.7 Hércules expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Villarreal II
Hércules
Attack vs Primera División RFEF Group 2 average
+41%
-16%
Goals conceded vs average
-13%
-7%
Our expected goals here
2.18
0.77
Our own ratings from every Primera División RFEF Group 2 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Villarreal II to win✓
62%
1.61
1.77 ▲
Double chance
Villarreal II or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
1.80
Draw no bet
Villarreal II (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
Villarreal II -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.94
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Villarreal II to score first✓
66%
1.51
–
Half-time result
Villarreal II ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Villarreal II / FT Villarreal II✓
41%
2.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.47
–
Recent results
Villarreal II – last 6
WWDLWW
19 Apr
@ Alcorcon
3–2
W
12 Apr
vs Algeciras
4–0
W
29 Mar
vs Sabadell
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Teruel
0–1
L
4 Mar
vs Eldense
2–0
W
20 Feb
@ Real Betis II
4–1
W
2.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Hércules – last 6
LLWLWD
9 Apr
vs Cacahuatique
0–2
L
5 Apr
@ Alcorcon
0–4
L
29 Mar
vs Marbella
2–0
W
20 Mar
@ Real Betis II
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Real Murcia
2–0
W
8 Mar
@ Atlético Madrid II
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Villarreal II and Hércules.
What is the prediction for Villarreal II vs Hércules?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Villarreal II vs Hércules?
On our numbers Villarreal II have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Hércules 15%.
How many goals will there be in Villarreal II vs Hércules?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Villarreal II vs Hércules?
Our predicted score is Villarreal II 2–0 Hércules, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Villarreal II vs Hércules?
Villarreal II vs Hércules (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de la Ceramica.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Tarazona0
Sanluqueño
Sabadell
Eldense
Marbella