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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Numancia v Real Ávila: numbers & prediction

Segunda División RFEF Group 1 · Spain · Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos

Numancia

DDLWL
Sun 12 Apr 2026

Real Ávila

LWWL
Numancia 57%Draw 24%Real Ávila 19% Expected goals 1.77 – 0.78
81%
Betarazi pick

Numancia or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.25

9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1

Value bet: Numancia to win @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk.

Picks by market

ResultNumancia to win57% · @1.95
Double chanceNumancia or draw81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score55% · fair 1.81
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–014% · fair 7.20

Numancia vs Real Ávila: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Numancia welcome Real Ávila to Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos for a Segunda División RFEF Group 1 fixture on Sunday 12 April (16:00 WAT).

Current form

Numancia, last 5: DDLWL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Sarriana, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Real Ávila, last 4: LWWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Langreo, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Numancia 1.8 xG, Real Ávila 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 45%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Numancia 57%, draw 24%, Real Ávila 19%.
  • Lower-risk option: Numancia or draw (81%) at 1.25.
  • Price worth noting: Numancia to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 57%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Numancia or draw (81%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Numancia 1–0 Real Ávila. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Numancia57%fair 1.76 · @1.95
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @3.25
Real Ávila19%fair 5.13 · @3.30
2.54Expected goals
1.77Numancia xG
0.78Real Ávila xG
45%Both score
45%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%

From our goals model: Numancia 1.8 – 0.8 Real Ávila expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultNumancia to win57%1.761.95 ▲
Double chanceNumancia or draw81%1.241.25
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score55%1.81–
Draw no betNumancia (draw no bet)74%1.34–
Asian handicapNumancia -0.5 (Asian handicap)61%1.64–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals72%1.39–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals55%1.831.67
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals75%1.34–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals89%1.13–
First team to scoreNumancia to score first64%1.56–
Half-time resultNumancia ahead at half-time43%2.32–
Half-time / full-timeHT Numancia / FT Numancia38%2.62–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–014%7.20–

Recent results

Numancia – last 6

DDLWLW
29 Marvs Sarriana2–2D
22 Mar@ Coruxo1–1D
15 Marvs Atlético Astorga0–1L
1 Marvs Burgos Promesas2–0W
22 Feb@ Deportivo La Coruña II1–2L
15 Febvs UD Ourense2–1W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Real Ávila – last 4

LWWL
5 Aprvs Langreo1–2L
15 Mar@ Real Oviedo II2–0W
21 Feb@ Burgos Promesas2–1W
15 Febvs Salamanca UDS1–2L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Numancia and Real Ávila.

Numancia vs Real Ávila head-to-head page →

More Segunda División RFEF Group 1 predictions

League hub
FT Deportivo La Coruña II3 UD Ourense0 155%1.68X27%3.30218%4.50 1.5–0.8xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 57%@1.65 ✗
FT Racing Santander II3 Atlético Astorga2 159%1.60X22%3.65219%4.60 1.9–1.1xG 1Racing Santander II to win 59%@1.60 ✓
– Burgos Promesas Coruxo 132%4.00X27%3.00241%1.85 1.2–1.1xG GGBoth teams to score 55%@2.00
– Langreo Sámano 163%1.11X18%7.00218%41.00 1.7–1.1xG GGBoth teams to score 50%@3.70
– Marino de Luanco Real Oviedo II 136%2.62X29%2.75234%2.62 1.1–1.0xG GGBoth teams to score 51%@2.10
– Gimnástica Segoviana Salamanca UDS 139%2.15X28%2.80233%3.40 1.3–1.2xG GGBoth teams to score 54%@2.15
– Lealtad Real Valladolid II 140%2.75X26%2.90233%2.45 1.6–1.3xG GGBoth teams to score 61%@1.75
– Bergantiños Sarriana 157%1.75X22%3.40221%4.00 2.1–1.2xG 1XBergantiños or draw 79%@1.22

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Numancia vs Real Ávila?

Our pick is Numancia or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Numancia vs Real Ávila?

On our numbers Numancia have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Real Ávila 19%.

How many goals will there be in Numancia vs Real Ávila?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Numancia vs Real Ávila?

Our predicted score is Numancia 1–0 Real Ávila, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Numancia vs Real Ávila?

Numancia vs Real Ávila (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.