Atlético Astorga v Sarriana Prediction & Expected Goals (26 Apr) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultAtlético Astorga to win ✓37% · @2.20

Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.36

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.75

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.27

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.23

Atlético Astorga vs Sarriana: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

11:00 WAT, Sunday 26 April: Atlético Astorga v Sarriana in the Segunda División RFEF Group 1, played at Estadio La Eragudina.

Current form

Atlético Astorga, last 3: LLW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Racing Santander II, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.

Sarriana, last 5: DWWLL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Numancia, away. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Atlético Astorga 1.4 xG, Sarriana 1.5 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 55% for three or more goals, 60% for GG.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Atlético Astorga 37%, draw 26%, Sarriana 37%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Sarriana to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 37%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (60%, odds 1.75 – longer than our fair 1.65, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atlético Astorga 1–1 Sarriana. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Atlético Astorga37%fair 2.69 · @2.20

Draw26%fair 3.83 · @2.90

Sarriana37%fair 2.73 · @3.10

2.90Expected goals

1.42Atlético Astorga xG

1.49Sarriana xG

60%Both score

55%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%

1–29%

2–18%

0–18%

1–08%

2–26%

From our goals model: Atlético Astorga 1.4 – 1.5 Sarriana expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Atlético Astorga to win ✓	37%	2.69	2.20
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	74%	1.35	1.36
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	60%	1.65	1.75 ▲
Draw no bet	Atlético Astorga (draw no bet) ✓	50%	1.98	–
Asian handicap	Atlético Astorga +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	61%	1.65	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	79%	1.27	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	55%	1.80	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	67%	1.49	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	83%	1.20	–
First team to score	Sarriana to score first ✗	48%	2.06	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	40%	2.47	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Sarriana / FT Sarriana ✗	23%	4.34	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	8%	12.23	–

Atlético Astorga – last 3

LLW

12 Apr	@ Racing Santander II	2–3	L
29 Mar	@ Deportivo La Coruña II	0–3	L
15 Mar	@ Numancia	1–0	W

1.0Scored / game

2.0Conceded / game

33%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Sarriana – last 5

DWWLL

29 Mar	@ Numancia	2–2	D
15 Mar	vs Salamanca UDS	1–0	W
1 Mar	vs UD Ourense	3–1	W
22 Feb	@ Coruxo	0–1	L
15 Feb	vs Gimnástica Segoviana	1–2	L

1.4Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

60%Both scored

60%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sestao River	10	8	1	1	+10	25
2	Eibar II	10	6	2	2	+10	20
3	Deportivo Alavés II	10	6	2	2	+9	20
4	Bergantiños	10	5	3	2	+8	18
5	Compostela	10	5	2	3	+4	17
6	Portugalete	10	4	4	2	+3	16
7	Amorebieta	10	5	1	4	+2	16
8	Real Oviedo II	10	4	3	3	-3	15
9	Basconia	10	3	5	2	0	14
10	Ourense CF	10	4	2	4	-3	14
11	Gernika	10	2	6	2	+6	12
12	Racing Santander II	10	3	2	5	-4	11
13	Llanera	10	3	1	6	-8	10
14	Coruxo	10	2	3	5	-4	9
15	Arosa	10	1	5	4	-6	8
16	Marino de Luanco	10	2	2	6	-6	8
17	Atlético Astorga	10	2	1	7	-6	7
18	Gimnástica Torrelavega	10	1	3	6	-12	6

Team

Pts

+10

+10

-3

-3

-4

-8

-4

-6

-6

-6

Gimnástica Torrelavega

-12

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Atlético Astorga vs Sarriana?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.

Who will win Atlético Astorga vs Sarriana?

On our numbers Atlético Astorga have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Sarriana 37%.

How many goals will there be in Atlético Astorga vs Sarriana?

We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Atlético Astorga vs Sarriana?

Our predicted score is Atlético Astorga 1–1 Sarriana, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.

When is Atlético Astorga vs Sarriana?

Atlético Astorga vs Sarriana (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio La Eragudina.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Atlético Astorga v Sarriana: numbers & prediction