Bergantiños v UD Ourense Prediction & Expected Goals (26 Apr) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultBergantiños to win ✗47% · @2.70

Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.40

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.95

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.36

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.35

Bergantiños vs UD Ourense: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Bergantiños welcome UD Ourense to Estadio As Eiroas for a Segunda División RFEF Group 1 fixture on Sunday 26 April (11:00 WAT).

Current form

Bergantiños, last 5: WLDWL Their latest outing: 4–3 win over Real Valladolid II, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

UD Ourense, last 5: LWDWL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Deportivo La Coruña II, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Bergantiños 1.7 xG, UD Ourense 0.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 55%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Bergantiños 47%, draw 26%, UD Ourense 27%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Bergantiños to win @2.70 – the bookmaker implies 37%, our ratings say 47%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (55%, odds 1.95 – longer than our fair 1.82, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bergantiños 1–1 UD Ourense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Bergantiños47%fair 2.12 · @2.70

Draw26%fair 3.84 · @2.70

UD Ourense27%fair 3.73 · @2.70

2.62Expected goals

1.68Bergantiños xG

0.94UD Ourense xG

55%Both score

49%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–012%

1–111%

2–010%

2–110%

0–07%

0–17%

From our goals model: Bergantiños 1.7 – 0.9 UD Ourense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Bergantiños to win ✗	47%	2.12	2.70 ▲
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	74%	1.35	1.40
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	55%	1.82	1.95 ▲
Draw no bet	Bergantiños (draw no bet) ✗	64%	1.57	–
Asian handicap	UD Ourense +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	60%	1.66	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	74%	1.36	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	51%	1.95	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	73%	1.37	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	87%	1.14	–
First team to score	Bergantiños to score first	59%	1.68	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	42%	2.38	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Bergantiños / FT Bergantiños ✗	34%	2.98	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	10%	10.35	–

Bergantiños – last 6

WLDWLD

5 Apr	@ Real Valladolid II	4–3	W
29 Mar	vs Coruxo	0–1	L
22 Mar	@ Salamanca UDS	0–0	D
15 Mar	vs Lealtad	3–0	W
8 Mar	@ Burgos Promesas	0–1	L
1 Mar	vs Deportivo La Coruña II	2–2	D

1.5Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

33%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

UD Ourense – last 6

LWDWLW

12 Apr	@ Deportivo La Coruña II	0–3	L
5 Apr	vs Gimnástica Segoviana	1–0	W
29 Mar	@ Marino de Luanco	0–0	D
22 Mar	vs Sámano	3–1	W
15 Mar	@ Langreo	0–1	L
8 Mar	vs Real Oviedo II	3–0	W

1.2Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

17%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sestao River	10	8	1	1	+10	25
2	Eibar II	10	6	2	2	+10	20
3	Deportivo Alavés II	10	6	2	2	+9	20
4	Bergantiños	10	5	3	2	+8	18
5	Compostela	10	5	2	3	+4	17
6	Portugalete	10	4	4	2	+3	16
7	Amorebieta	10	5	1	4	+2	16
8	Real Oviedo II	10	4	3	3	-3	15
9	Basconia	10	3	5	2	0	14
10	Ourense CF	10	4	2	4	-3	14
11	Gernika	10	2	6	2	+6	12
12	Racing Santander II	10	3	2	5	-4	11
13	Llanera	10	3	1	6	-8	10
14	Coruxo	10	2	3	5	-4	9
15	Arosa	10	1	5	4	-6	8
16	Marino de Luanco	10	2	2	6	-6	8
17	Atlético Astorga	10	2	1	7	-6	7
18	Gimnástica Torrelavega	10	1	3	6	-12	6

Team

Pts

+10

+10

-3

-3

-4

-8

-4

-6

-6

-6

Gimnástica Torrelavega

-12

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bergantiños vs UD Ourense?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.

Who will win Bergantiños vs UD Ourense?

On our numbers Bergantiños have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 26% and UD Ourense 27%.

How many goals will there be in Bergantiños vs UD Ourense?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Bergantiños vs UD Ourense?

Our predicted score is Bergantiños 1–1 UD Ourense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Bergantiños vs UD Ourense?

Bergantiños vs UD Ourense (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio As Eiroas.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Bergantiños v UD Ourense: numbers & prediction