Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Atletico Paranaense to win @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultAtletico Paranaense to win55% · @1.95
Double chanceAtletico Paranaense or draw80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score54% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.28
Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Atletico Paranaense welcome Coritiba to Arena da Baixada for a Serie A fixture on Sunday 22 March (20:00 WAT). In the table, Atletico Paranaense are 5th, upper half, on 54 points after 34 matches; Coritiba are 12th (lower half) with 42. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Atletico Paranaense, last 5: WLDLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Cruzeiro, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.4 conceded per game.
Coritiba, last 3: WWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Mirassol, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Coritiba, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.8 for Atletico Paranaense.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico Paranaense 1.7 xG, Coritiba 0.9 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico Paranaense 55%, draw 26%, Coritiba 20%.
Lower-risk option: Atletico Paranaense or draw (80%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Atletico Paranaense to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Atletico Paranaense or draw (80%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico Paranaense 1–0 Coritiba. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico Paranaense55%fair 1.83 · @1.95
Draw26%fair 3.92 · @3.20
Coritiba20%fair 5.01 · @4.00
2.66Expected goals
1.73Atletico Paranaense xG
0.93Coritiba xG
54%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Atletico Paranaense 1.7 – 0.9 Coritiba expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Atletico Paranaense
Coritiba
Attack vs Serie A average
+14%
-20%
Goals conceded vs average
+15%
+18%
Our expected goals here
2.06
1.06
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Paranaense to win
55%
1.83
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Atletico Paranaense or draw
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
54%
1.84
1.91
Draw no bet
Atletico Paranaense (draw no bet)
73%
1.37
–
Asian handicap
Coritiba +1.5 (Asian handicap)
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
71%
1.41
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
54%
1.86
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
75%
1.33
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
88%
1.14
1.07
First team to score
Atletico Paranaense to score first
60%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
41%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Paranaense / FT Atletico Paranaense
35%
2.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.28
–
Recent results
Atletico Paranaense – last 5
WLDLL
18 Mar
vs Cruzeiro
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Fluminense
2–3
L
25 Feb
@ RB Bragantino
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Londrina
0–1
L
19 Feb
vs Corinthians
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Coritiba – last 3
WWL
19 Mar
@ Mirassol
1–0
W
12 Mar
@ Corinthians
2–0
W
25 Feb
vs Sao Paulo
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Paranaense and Coritiba.
What is the prediction for Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba?
Our pick is Atletico Paranaense or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba?
On our numbers Atletico Paranaense have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Coritiba 20%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba?
Our predicted score is Atletico Paranaense 1–0 Coritiba, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba?
Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena da Baixada.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
