Vitoria vs Mirassol: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Vitoria welcome Mirassol to Barradao for a Serie A fixture on Sunday 22 March (22:30 WAT). In the table, Vitoria are 15th, lower half, on 38 points after 34 matches; Mirassol are 14th (lower half) with 40. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Vitoria, last 4: LDWW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Gremio, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Mirassol, last 3: LDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Coritiba, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Vitoria, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.3 for Mirassol.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Vitoria 1.2 xG, Mirassol 1.3 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Vitoria 35%, draw 28%, Mirassol 37%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vitoria 1–1 Mirassol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Vitoria35%fair 2.82 · @2.60
Draw28%fair 3.59 · @3.10
Mirassol37%fair 2.73 · @2.75
2.45Expected goals
1.18Vitoria xG
1.27Mirassol xG
53%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Vitoria 1.2 – 1.3 Mirassol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Vitoria
Mirassol
Attack vs Serie A average
-32%
-9%
Goals conceded vs average
+16%
-2%
Our expected goals here
1.03
1.21
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mirassol to win
37%
2.73
2.75
Double chance
Either team to win
72%
1.39
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
53%
1.89
1.85
Draw no bet
Mirassol (draw no bet)
51%
1.97
–
Asian handicap
Vitoria +0.5 (Asian handicap)
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
68%
1.46
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
57%
1.76
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
89%
1.12
1.06
First team to score
Mirassol to score first
47%
2.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mirassol / FT Mirassol
22%
4.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
8%
12.16
–
Recent results
Vitoria – last 4
LDWW
19 Mar
@ Gremio
0–2
L
12 Mar
@ Bahia
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Galícia
3–0
W
18 Feb
vs Bahia de Feira
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Mirassol – last 3
LDL
19 Mar
vs Coritiba
0–1
L
11 Mar
vs Santos
2–2
D
16 Feb
vs Portuguesa
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vitoria and Mirassol.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Vitoria vs Mirassol?
On our numbers Vitoria have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Mirassol 37%.
How many goals will there be in Vitoria vs Mirassol?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vitoria vs Mirassol?
Our predicted score is Vitoria 1–1 Mirassol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Vitoria vs Mirassol?
Vitoria vs Mirassol (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Barradao.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
