Value bet: Palmeiras to win @ 2.78 – our chance 41% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPalmeiras to win ✓41% · @2.78
Double chanceEither team to win ✓71% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.24
Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 22 March the Serie A brings Sao Paulo against Palmeiras at MorumBIS. Kick-off: 01:00 WAT. In the table, Sao Paulo are 10th, upper half, on 44 points after 34 matches; Palmeiras are 2nd (among the top four) with 73. There are 29 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Sao Paulo, last 5: LWWLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Atletico-MG, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Palmeiras, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Botafogo, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Palmeiras, collecting 2.5 points per game to 2.0 for Sao Paulo.
Head to head
When they last met (2 Mar 2026) it ended Palmeiras 2–1 Sao Paulo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sao Paulo 1.0 xG, Palmeiras 1.4 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sao Paulo 30%, draw 29%, Palmeiras 41%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Palmeiras to win @2.78 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sao Paulo 0–1 Palmeiras. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sao Paulo30%fair 3.31 · @2.72
Draw29%fair 3.49 · @2.92
Palmeiras41%fair 2.43 · @2.78
2.36Expected goals
0.95Sao Paulo xG
1.40Palmeiras xG
53%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
1–113%
0–09%
0–29%
1–09%
1–29%
From our goals model: Sao Paulo 1.0 – 1.4 Palmeiras expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Sao Paulo
Palmeiras
Attack vs Serie A average
-22%
+41%
Goals conceded vs average
-14%
-42%
Our expected goals here
0.69
1.38
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
On our numbers Sao Paulo have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Palmeiras 41%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Our predicted score is Sao Paulo 0–1 Palmeiras, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at MorumBIS.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
