Vasco DA Gama 55%Draw 25%Gremio 20%Expected goals 1.80 – 1.03
80%
Betarazi pick
Vasco DA Gama or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultVasco DA Gama to win55% · @1.90
Double chanceVasco DA Gama or draw80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score57% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals75% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.15
Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Gremio travel to face Vasco DA Gama on Sunday 22 March in the Serie A – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT. In the table, Vasco DA Gama are 13th, lower half, on 41 points after 33 matches; Gremio are 18th (in the drop zone) with 37.
Current form
Vasco DA Gama, last 5: WDWLL Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Fluminense, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Gremio, last 5: WDDWD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Vitoria, at home. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Vasco DA Gama 1.8 xG, Gremio 1.0 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Vasco DA Gama 55%, draw 25%, Gremio 20%.
Lower-risk option: Vasco DA Gama or draw (80%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Vasco DA Gama or draw (80%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vasco DA Gama 1–1 Gremio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Vasco DA Gama55%fair 1.81 · @1.90
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @3.35
Gremio20%fair 5.02 · @4.10
2.83Expected goals
1.80Vasco DA Gama xG
1.03Gremio xG
57%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–011%
2–110%
2–010%
0–16%
3–16%
From our goals model: Vasco DA Gama 1.8 – 1.0 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Vasco DA Gama
Gremio
Attack vs Serie A average
+8%
-16%
Goals conceded vs average
+6%
+2%
Our expected goals here
1.70
1.01
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vasco DA Gama to win
55%
1.81
1.90
Double chance
Vasco DA Gama or draw
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
57%
1.76
1.75
Draw no bet
Vasco DA Gama (draw no bet)
73%
1.36
–
Asian handicap
Gremio +1.5 (Asian handicap)
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
75%
1.34
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
51%
1.95
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
70%
1.43
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
85%
1.18
1.11
First team to score
Vasco DA Gama to score first
60%
1.67
–
Half-time result
Vasco DA Gama ahead at half-time
40%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vasco DA Gama / FT Vasco DA Gama
34%
2.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.15
–
Recent results
Vasco DA Gama – last 5
WDWLL
19 Mar
vs Fluminense
3–2
W
16 Mar
@ Cruzeiro
3–3
D
12 Mar
vs Palmeiras
2–1
W
26 Feb
@ Santos
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs Fluminense
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
80%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Gremio – last 5
WDDWD
19 Mar
vs Vitoria
2–0
W
17 Mar
@ Chapecoense-sc
1–1
D
13 Mar
vs RB Bragantino
1–1
D
26 Feb
vs Atletico-MG
2–1
W
15 Feb
vs Juventude
1–1
D
1.4Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
80%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vasco DA Gama and Gremio.
What is the prediction for Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio?
Our pick is Vasco DA Gama or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio?
On our numbers Vasco DA Gama have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Gremio 20%.
How many goals will there be in Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio?
Our predicted score is Vasco DA Gama 1–1 Gremio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio?
Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
