Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.00 – our chance 53% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultCruzeiro to win55% · @1.75
Double chanceCruzeiro or draw80% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score53% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals76% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.17
Cruzeiro vs Santos: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Santos travel to face Cruzeiro on Sunday 22 March in the Serie A – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT. In the table, Cruzeiro are 3rd, among the top four, on 60 points after 34 matches; Santos are 9th (upper half) with 47. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Cruzeiro, last 5: LDLDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Atletico Paranaense, away. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Santos, last 5: LDDWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Internacional, at home. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cruzeiro 1.9 xG, Santos 1.1 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 53% and GG at 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cruzeiro 55%, draw 25%, Santos 20%.
Lower-risk option: Cruzeiro or draw (80%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Over 2.5 goals @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cruzeiro 1–1 Santos. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cruzeiro55%fair 1.81 · @1.75
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.55
Santos20%fair 4.99 · @4.60
3.05Expected goals
1.90Cruzeiro xG
1.15Santos xG
53%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–110%
1–09%
2–09%
3–16%
1–26%
From our goals model: Cruzeiro 1.9 – 1.1 Santos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Cruzeiro
Santos
Attack vs Serie A average
+35%
+11%
Goals conceded vs average
-1%
-7%
Our expected goals here
1.92
1.26
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cruzeiro to win
55%
1.81
1.75
Double chance
Cruzeiro or draw
80%
1.25
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
53%
1.87
1.85
Draw no bet
Cruzeiro (draw no bet)
73%
1.36
–
Asian handicap
Santos +1.5 (Asian handicap)
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
76%
1.32
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
53%
1.88
2.00 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
68%
1.47
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
83%
1.20
1.10
First team to score
Cruzeiro to score first
59%
1.68
–
Half-time result
Cruzeiro ahead at half-time
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cruzeiro / FT Cruzeiro
34%
2.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.17
–
Recent results
Cruzeiro – last 5
LDLDW
18 Mar
@ Atletico Paranaense
1–2
L
16 Mar
vs Vasco DA Gama
3–3
D
12 Mar
@ Flamengo
0–2
L
26 Feb
vs Corinthians
1–1
D
14 Feb
@ Uniao Trabalhadores
2–1
W
1.4Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
80%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Santos – last 6
LDDWLW
19 Mar
vs Internacional
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Corinthians
1–1
D
11 Mar
@ Mirassol
2–2
D
26 Feb
vs Vasco DA Gama
2–1
W
22 Feb
@ Novorizontino
1–2
L
16 Feb
vs Velo Clube
7–0
W
2.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cruzeiro and Santos.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Santos?
On our numbers Cruzeiro have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Santos 20%.
How many goals will there be in Cruzeiro vs Santos?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cruzeiro vs Santos?
Our predicted score is Cruzeiro 1–1 Santos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Cruzeiro vs Santos?
Cruzeiro vs Santos (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
