Atletico-MG vs Botafogo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Atletico-MG welcome Botafogo to MRV Arena for a Serie A fixture on Sunday 10 May (20:00 WAT). In the table, Atletico-MG are 7th, upper half, on 50 points after 34 matches; Botafogo are 11th (lower half) with 42.
Current form
Atletico-MG, last 5: DWLWW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Juventud, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Botafogo, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Racing Club, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Momentum favours Botafogo, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.7 for Atletico-MG.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico-MG 1.7 xG, Botafogo 1.0 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 56%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico-MG 47%, draw 25%, Botafogo 28%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico-MG 1–1 Botafogo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico-MG47%fair 2.12 · @2.14
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.40
Botafogo28%fair 3.62 · @3.25
2.67Expected goals
1.66Atletico-MG xG
1.01Botafogo xG
56%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–012%
2–110%
2–010%
0–17%
0–07%
From our goals model: Atletico-MG 1.7 – 1.0 Botafogo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Atletico-MG
Botafogo
Attack vs Serie A average
-3%
-23%
Goals conceded vs average
-20%
+6%
Our expected goals here
1.57
0.71
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico-MG to win
47%
2.12
2.14
Double chance
Either team to win
75%
1.34
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
56%
1.77
1.75
Draw no bet
Atletico-MG (draw no bet)
63%
1.59
–
Asian handicap
Botafogo +1 (Asian handicap)
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
73%
1.36
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
51%
1.97
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
72%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
86%
1.16
1.10
First team to score
Atletico-MG to score first
58%
1.72
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico-MG / FT Atletico-MG
32%
3.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.37
–
Recent results
Atletico-MG – last 6
DWLWWL
5 May
@ Juventud
2–2
D
3 May
@ Cruzeiro
3–1
W
30 Apr
@ Cienciano
0–1
L
23 Apr
vs Ceara
2–1
W
16 Apr
vs Juventud
2–1
W
12 Apr
@ Santos
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Botafogo – last 6
WWWWDW
7 May
vs Racing Club
2–1
W
28 Apr
vs Independiente Petrolero
3–0
W
21 Apr
vs Chapecoense-sc
1–0
W
15 Apr
@ Racing Club
3–2
W
9 Apr
vs Caracas FC
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Vasco DA Gama
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico-MG and Botafogo.
What is the prediction for Atletico-MG vs Botafogo?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Botafogo?
On our numbers Atletico-MG have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Botafogo 28%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico-MG vs Botafogo?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico-MG vs Botafogo?
Our predicted score is Atletico-MG 1–1 Botafogo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Atletico-MG vs Botafogo?
Atletico-MG vs Botafogo (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at MRV Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
