Corinthians 43%Draw 29%Sao Paulo 28%Expected goals 1.16 – 0.92
72%
Betarazi pick
Corinthians or draw
Strong pick · fair odds 1.40 · bookmaker 1.22
7/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Sao Paulo to win @ 4.10 – our chance 28% vs 24% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultCorinthians to win43% · @2.00
Double chanceCorinthians or draw72% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals82% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18% · fair 12.91
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Corinthians welcome Sao Paulo to Neo Quimica Arena for a Serie A fixture on Sunday 10 May (22:30 WAT). In the table, Corinthians are 17th, lower half, on 37 points after 34 matches; Sao Paulo are 10th (upper half) with 44.
Current form
Corinthians, last 5: DLWWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Santa Fe, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Sao Paulo, last 5: DDWWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with O'Higgins, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 6 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Sao Paulo, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.8 for Corinthians.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Corinthians 1.2 xG, Sao Paulo 0.9 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 63%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Corinthians 43%, draw 29%, Sao Paulo 28%.
Lower-risk option: Corinthians or draw (72%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Sao Paulo to win @4.10 – the bookmaker implies 24%, our ratings say 28%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Corinthians or draw (72%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Corinthians 1–0 Sao Paulo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Corinthians43%fair 2.35 · @2.00
Draw29%fair 3.46 · @3.05
Sao Paulo28%fair 3.51 · @4.10
2.08Expected goals
1.16Corinthians xG
0.92Sao Paulo xG
51%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–113%
0–013%
0–111%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Corinthians 1.2 – 0.9 Sao Paulo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
Attack vs Serie A average
-15%
-22%
Goals conceded vs average
+3%
-14%
Our expected goals here
1.12
0.92
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Corinthians to win
43%
2.35
2.00
Double chance
Corinthians or draw
72%
1.40
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
51%
1.95
2.05
Draw no bet
Corinthians (draw no bet)
60%
1.67
–
Asian handicap
Sao Paulo +1 (Asian handicap)
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
63%
1.59
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
63%
1.58
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
82%
1.22
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
92%
1.09
1.05
First team to score
Corinthians to score first
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Corinthians / FT Corinthians
24%
4.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
8%
12.91
–
Recent results
Corinthians – last 6
DLWWDW
7 May
@ Santa Fe
1–1
D
4 May
@ Mirassol
1–2
L
1 May
vs Penarol
2–0
W
22 Apr
@ Barra
1–0
W
19 Apr
@ Vitoria
0–0
D
16 Apr
vs Santa Fe
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Sao Paulo – last 6
DDWWWW
7 May
@ O'Higgins
0–0
D
29 Apr
@ Millonarios
0–0
D
26 Apr
vs Mirassol
1–0
W
21 Apr
vs Juventude
1–0
W
14 Apr
vs O'Higgins
2–0
W
8 Apr
@ Boston River
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Corinthians and Sao Paulo.
What is the prediction for Corinthians vs Sao Paulo?
Our pick is Corinthians or draw with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Corinthians vs Sao Paulo?
On our numbers Corinthians have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Sao Paulo 28%.
How many goals will there be in Corinthians vs Sao Paulo?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Corinthians vs Sao Paulo?
Our predicted score is Corinthians 1–0 Sao Paulo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Corinthians vs Sao Paulo?
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Neo Quimica Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
