Value bet: Cruzeiro to win @ 3.55 – our chance 32% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultBahia to win ✗43% · @2.04
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.25
Bahia vs Cruzeiro: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Cruzeiro travel to face Bahia on Sunday 10 May in the Serie A, with Arena Fonte Nova the venue – the ball rolls at 01:00 WAT. In the table, Bahia are 6th, upper half, on 53 points after 34 matches; Cruzeiro are 3rd (among the top four) with 60.
Current form
Bahia, last 5: LLLWW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Remo, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Cruzeiro, last 5: DLWDW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with U. Catolica, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Bahia 1.5 xG, Cruzeiro 1.4 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 51% for three or more goals, 58% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Bahia 43%, draw 25%, Cruzeiro 32%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.77.
Price worth noting: Cruzeiro to win @3.55 – the bookmaker implies 28%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bahia 1–1 Cruzeiro. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Bahia43%fair 2.32 · @2.04
Draw25%fair 4.03 · @3.35
Cruzeiro32%fair 3.12 · @3.55
2.90Expected goals
1.54Bahia xG
1.36Cruzeiro xG
58%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
2–19%
1–08%
1–28%
0–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: Bahia 1.5 – 1.4 Cruzeiro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Bahia
Cruzeiro
Attack vs Serie A average
+9%
+35%
Goals conceded vs average
+0%
-1%
Our expected goals here
1.64
1.54
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bahia to win✗
43%
2.32
2.04
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.77
Draw no bet
Bahia (draw no bet)✗
57%
1.74
–
Asian handicap
Cruzeiro +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
2.00
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.09
First team to score
Bahia to score first
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bahia / FT Bahia✗
25%
4.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.25
–
Recent results
Bahia – last 6
LLLWWW
22 Apr
vs Remo
1–3
L
19 Apr
@ Flamengo
0–2
L
5 Apr
vs Palmeiras
1–2
L
2 Apr
vs Atletico Paranaense
3–0
W
18 Mar
vs RB Bragantino
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Internacional
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Cruzeiro – last 6
DLWDWL
7 May
@ U. Catolica
0–0
D
3 May
vs Atletico-MG
1–3
L
29 Apr
vs Boca Juniors
1–0
W
22 Apr
@ Goias
2–2
D
19 Apr
vs Gremio
2–0
W
15 Apr
vs U. Catolica
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bahia and Cruzeiro.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
On our numbers Bahia have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Cruzeiro 32%.
How many goals will there be in Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
Our predicted score is Bahia 1–1 Cruzeiro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
Bahia vs Cruzeiro (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Fonte Nova.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
