Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Flamengo to win @ 1.94 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultFlamengo to win ✓56% · @1.94
Double chanceFlamengo or draw ✓81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓13% · fair 7.91
Gremio vs Flamengo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 10 May the Serie A brings Gremio against Flamengo at Arena do Grêmio. Kick-off: 23:30 WAT. In the table, Gremio are 18th, in the drop zone, on 37 points after 34 matches; Flamengo are 1st (leading the league) with 76. There are 39 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Gremio, last 5: WDDWL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Deportivo Riestra, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Flamengo, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Estudiantes L.P., away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Gremio 0.9 xG, Flamengo 1.7 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Gremio 19%, draw 25%, Flamengo 56%.
Lower-risk option: Flamengo or draw (81%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Flamengo to win @1.94 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Flamengo or draw (81%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Gremio 0–1 Flamengo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Gremio19%fair 5.38 · @3.80
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.45
Flamengo56%fair 1.78 · @1.94
2.62Expected goals
0.89Gremio xG
1.73Flamengo xG
50%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
1–111%
0–211%
1–210%
0–07%
1–06%
From our goals model: Gremio 0.9 – 1.7 Flamengo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Gremio
Flamengo
Attack vs Serie A average
-16%
+54%
Goals conceded vs average
+2%
-29%
Our expected goals here
0.91
1.80
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Flamengo to win✓
56%
1.78
1.94 ▲
Double chance
Flamengo or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
2.00
1.85
Draw no bet
Flamengo (draw no bet)✓
75%
1.33
–
Asian handicap
Gremio +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.09
First team to score
Flamengo to score first✓
61%
1.63
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Flamengo / FT Flamengo✗
35%
2.82
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
13%
7.91
–
Recent results
Gremio – last 6
WDDWLW
5 May
@ Deportivo Riestra
3–0
W
3 May
@ Atletico Paranaense
0–0
D
30 Apr
@ Palestino
0–0
D
21 Apr
vs Confiança
2–0
W
19 Apr
@ Cruzeiro
0–2
L
14 Apr
vs Deportivo Riestra
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Flamengo – last 6
DWWWWL
30 Apr
@ Estudiantes L.P.
1–1
D
23 Apr
vs Vitoria
2–1
W
19 Apr
vs Bahia
2–0
W
17 Apr
vs Independiente Medellin
4–1
W
9 Apr
@ Cusco
2–0
W
3 Apr
@ RB Bragantino
0–3
L
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gremio and Flamengo.
Our pick is Flamengo or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Gremio vs Flamengo?
On our numbers Gremio have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Flamengo 56%.
How many goals will there be in Gremio vs Flamengo?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gremio vs Flamengo?
Our predicted score is Gremio 0–1 Flamengo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Gremio vs Flamengo?
Gremio vs Flamengo (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena do Grêmio.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
