Value bet: Flamengo to win @ 2.22 – our chance 48% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFlamengo to win ✗48% · @2.22
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.42
Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 17 May the Serie A brings Atletico Paranaense against Flamengo at Arena da Baixada. Kick-off: 23:30 WAT. In the table, Atletico Paranaense are 5th, upper half, on 54 points after 34 matches; Flamengo are 1st (leading the league) with 76. There are 22 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Atletico Paranaense, last 5: LDDLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Vasco DA Gama, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Flamengo, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Vitoria, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Flamengo, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.3 for Atletico Paranaense.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atletico Paranaense 1.1 xG, Flamengo 1.7 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atletico Paranaense 28%, draw 24%, Flamengo 48%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Flamengo to win @2.22 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 48%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.38). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Flamengo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atletico Paranaense28%fair 3.59 · @3.20
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.30
Flamengo48%fair 2.09 · @2.22
2.82Expected goals
1.14Atletico Paranaense xG
1.68Flamengo xG
54%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
0–110%
1–210%
0–28%
1–07%
2–16%
From our goals model: Atletico Paranaense 1.1 – 1.7 Flamengo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
Attack vs Serie A average
+14%
+54%
Goals conceded vs average
+15%
-29%
Our expected goals here
1.23
2.02
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Flamengo to win✗
48%
2.09
2.22 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.85
Draw no bet
Flamengo (draw no bet)
63%
1.58
–
Asian handicap
Atletico Paranaense +1 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.07
First team to score
Flamengo to score first✗
56%
1.78
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.46
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Flamengo / FT Flamengo✗
30%
3.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.42
–
Recent results
Atletico Paranaense – last 6
LDDLWW
11 May
@ Vasco DA Gama
0–1
L
3 May
vs Gremio
0–0
D
24 Apr
vs Atletico Goianiense
0–0
D
2 Apr
@ Bahia
0–3
L
29 Mar
vs Botafogo
4–1
W
18 Mar
vs Cruzeiro
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Flamengo – last 6
LWDWWW
15 May
@ Vitoria
0–2
L
10 May
@ Gremio
1–0
W
30 Apr
@ Estudiantes L.P.
1–1
D
23 Apr
vs Vitoria
2–1
W
19 Apr
vs Bahia
2–0
W
17 Apr
vs Independiente Medellin
4–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Paranaense and Flamengo.
What is the prediction for Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
On our numbers Atletico Paranaense have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Flamengo 48%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
Our predicted score is Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Flamengo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo?
Atletico Paranaense vs Flamengo (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena da Baixada.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
