Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultPalmeiras to win ✗58% · @1.81
Double chancePalmeiras or draw ✓82% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.93
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.15
Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
01:00 WAT, Sunday 17 May: Palmeiras v Cruzeiro in the Serie A, played at Allianz Parque. In the table, Palmeiras are 2nd, among the top four, on 73 points after 34 matches; Cruzeiro are 3rd (among the top four) with 60. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Palmeiras, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Jacuipense, away. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.
Cruzeiro, last 5: WWDLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Goias, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Palmeiras, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.8 for Cruzeiro.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Palmeiras 1.9 xG, Cruzeiro 0.9 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Palmeiras 58%, draw 24%, Cruzeiro 18%.
Lower-risk option: Palmeiras or draw (82%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.93.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Palmeiras or draw (82%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Palmeiras 1–0 Cruzeiro. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Palmeiras58%fair 1.72 · @1.81
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.45
Cruzeiro18%fair 5.64 · @4.35
2.77Expected goals
1.88Palmeiras xG
0.88Cruzeiro xG
54%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%
From our goals model: Palmeiras 1.9 – 0.9 Cruzeiro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Palmeiras
Cruzeiro
Attack vs Serie A average
+41%
+35%
Goals conceded vs average
-42%
-1%
Our expected goals here
2.13
0.90
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Palmeiras to win✗
58%
1.72
1.81 ▲
Double chance
Palmeiras or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
1.93
Draw no bet
Palmeiras (draw no bet)
77%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
Palmeiras -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.94
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.08
First team to score
Palmeiras to score first
64%
1.57
–
Half-time result
Palmeiras ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras✗
38%
2.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.15
–
Recent results
Palmeiras – last 6
WWDWWD
14 May
@ Jacuipense
4–1
W
5 May
@ Sporting Cristal
2–0
W
30 Apr
@ Cerro Porteno
1–1
D
23 Apr
vs Jacuipense
3–0
W
16 Apr
vs Sporting Cristal
2–1
W
9 Apr
@ Junior
1–1
D
2.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Cruzeiro – last 6
WWDLWD
13 May
vs Goias
1–0
W
10 May
@ Bahia
2–1
W
7 May
@ U. Catolica
0–0
D
3 May
vs Atletico-MG
1–3
L
29 Apr
vs Boca Juniors
1–0
W
22 Apr
@ Goias
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Palmeiras and Cruzeiro.
Our pick is Palmeiras or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?
On our numbers Palmeiras have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cruzeiro 18%.
How many goals will there be in Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?
Our predicted score is Palmeiras 1–0 Cruzeiro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?
Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Allianz Parque.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
