Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultBahia to win ✗56% · @1.81
Double chanceBahia or draw ✓80% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.38
Bahia vs Gremio: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 17 May the Serie A brings Bahia against Gremio at Arena Fonte Nova. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT. In the table, Bahia are 6th, upper half, on 53 points after 34 matches; Gremio are 18th (in the drop zone) with 37. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Bahia, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Remo, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Gremio, last 5: WLWDD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Confiança, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Gremio, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.5 for Bahia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Bahia 1.7 xG, Gremio 0.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Bahia 56%, draw 24%, Gremio 20%.
Lower-risk option: Bahia or draw (80%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.77.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Bahia or draw (80%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bahia 1–0 Gremio. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Bahia56%fair 1.79 · @1.81
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.55
Gremio20%fair 5.03 · @4.20
2.60Expected goals
1.68Bahia xG
0.92Gremio xG
56%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Bahia 1.7 – 0.9 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Bahia
Gremio
Attack vs Serie A average
+9%
-16%
Goals conceded vs average
+0%
+2%
Our expected goals here
1.70
0.96
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bahia to win✗
56%
1.79
1.81
Double chance
Bahia or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.77
1.77
Draw no bet
Bahia (draw no bet)
74%
1.36
–
Asian handicap
Gremio +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.11
First team to score
Bahia to score first
60%
1.67
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bahia / FT Bahia✗
34%
2.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.38
–
Recent results
Bahia – last 6
LLLLLW
14 May
@ Remo
1–2
L
10 May
vs Cruzeiro
1–2
L
22 Apr
vs Remo
1–3
L
19 Apr
@ Flamengo
0–2
L
5 Apr
vs Palmeiras
1–2
L
2 Apr
vs Atletico Paranaense
3–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Gremio – last 6
WLWDDW
14 May
@ Confiança
3–0
W
10 May
vs Flamengo
0–1
L
5 May
@ Deportivo Riestra
3–0
W
3 May
@ Atletico Paranaense
0–0
D
30 Apr
@ Palestino
0–0
D
21 Apr
vs Confiança
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bahia and Gremio.
Our pick is Bahia or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Bahia vs Gremio?
On our numbers Bahia have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Gremio 20%.
How many goals will there be in Bahia vs Gremio?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bahia vs Gremio?
Our predicted score is Bahia 1–0 Gremio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Bahia vs Gremio?
Bahia vs Gremio (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Fonte Nova.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
