Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Bahia welcome Vasco DA Gama to Arena Fonte Nova for a Serie A fixture on Sunday 9 August (20:00 WAT). In the table, Bahia are 6th, upper half, on 53 points after 34 matches; Vasco DA Gama are 13th (lower half) with 41. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Bahia, last 5: DDDWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Fluminense, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Vasco DA Gama, last 5: WDWDD Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Fluminense, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Bahia 1.7 xG, Vasco DA Gama 1.1 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Bahia 52%, draw 24%, Vasco DA Gama 24%.
Lower-risk option: Bahia or draw (76%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Bahia or draw (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bahia 1–1 Vasco DA Gama. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Bahia52%fair 1.92 · @1.90
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.55
Vasco DA Gama24%fair 4.23 · @3.80
2.81Expected goals
1.69Bahia xG
1.12Vasco DA Gama xG
60%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–09%
0–17%
1–26%
From our goals model: Bahia 1.7 – 1.1 Vasco DA Gama expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
Attack vs Serie A average
+9%
+8%
Goals conceded vs average
+0%
+6%
Our expected goals here
1.76
1.24
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bahia to win✗
52%
1.92
1.90
Double chance
Bahia or draw✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.70
Draw no bet
Bahia (draw no bet)
69%
1.45
–
Asian handicap
Vasco DA Gama +1 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.91
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.12
First team to score
Bahia to score first✗
57%
1.77
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.46
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bahia / FT Bahia✗
31%
3.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.38
–
Recent results
Bahia – last 6
DDDWLW
30 Jul
@ Fluminense
0–0
D
26 Jul
vs Corinthians
1–1
D
21 Jul
@ Atletico-MG
1–1
D
17 Jul
vs Chapecoense-sc
2–0
W
12 Jul
@ Fluminense
0–2
L
30 May
vs Botafogo
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Vasco DA Gama – last 6
WDWDDL
6 Aug
@ Fluminense
3–1
W
1 Aug
vs Fluminense
0–0
D
29 Jul
vs Independiente Medellin
1–0
W
26 Jul
vs Mirassol
1–1
D
22 Jul
@ Independiente Medellin
2–2
D
16 Jul
@ Vitoria
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bahia and Vasco DA Gama.
What is the prediction for Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our pick is Bahia or draw with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
On our numbers Bahia have a 52% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Vasco DA Gama 24%.
How many goals will there be in Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our predicted score is Bahia 1–1 Vasco DA Gama, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Fonte Nova.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
