Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.80 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSantos to win ✗47% · @2.04
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.45
Santos vs Atletico Paranaense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Santos welcome Atletico Paranaense to Estádio Urbano Caldeira for a Serie A fixture on Sunday 9 August (22:30 WAT). In the table, Santos are 9th, upper half, on 47 points after 34 matches; Atletico Paranaense are 5th (upper half) with 54.
Current form
Santos, last 5: WDWDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Remo, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Atletico Paranaense, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Vitoria, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Santos 1.7 xG, Atletico Paranaense 1.1 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Santos 47%, draw 25%, Atletico Paranaense 28%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.35). Most likely score in line with that pick: Santos 1–1 Atletico Paranaense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Santos47%fair 2.11 · @2.04
Draw25%fair 4.03 · @3.20
Atletico Paranaense28%fair 3.59 · @3.70
2.82Expected goals
1.67Santos xG
1.15Atletico Paranaense xG
61%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–08%
0–17%
1–27%
From our goals model: Santos 1.7 – 1.1 Atletico Paranaense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Santos
Atletico Paranaense
Attack vs Serie A average
+11%
+14%
Goals conceded vs average
-7%
+15%
Our expected goals here
1.95
1.21
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Santos to win✗
47%
2.11
2.04
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.65
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Santos (draw no bet)✗
63%
1.59
–
Asian handicap
Atletico Paranaense +1 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
1.09
First team to score
Santos to score first✗
56%
1.79
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.46
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Santos / FT Santos✗
30%
3.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.45
–
Recent results
Santos – last 6
WDWDWL
5 Aug
@ Remo
1–0
W
2 Aug
vs Remo
0–0
D
29 Jul
vs UCV
4–2
W
25 Jul
vs Chapecoense-sc
2–2
D
22 Jul
@ UCV
4–1
W
16 Jul
@ Botafogo
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Atletico Paranaense – last 6
LWDWWL
7 Aug
@ Vitoria
0–4
L
4 Aug
vs Vitoria
2–0
W
30 Jul
@ Corinthians
0–0
D
25 Jul
vs Internacional
2–0
W
23 Jul
@ Sao Paulo
2–1
W
11 Jul
@ RB Bragantino
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santos and Atletico Paranaense.
What is the prediction for Santos vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Santos vs Atletico Paranaense?
On our numbers Santos have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Atletico Paranaense 28%.
How many goals will there be in Santos vs Atletico Paranaense?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santos vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our predicted score is Santos 1–1 Atletico Paranaense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Santos vs Atletico Paranaense?
Santos vs Atletico Paranaense (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
