Value bet: Guadalajara Chivas to win @ 2.74 – our chance 40% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultGuadalajara Chivas to win ✗40% · @2.74
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.06
Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Chivas: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Guadalajara Chivas travel to face Tigres UANL on Sunday 12 April in the Liga MX, with Estadio Universitario (UANL) the venue – the ball rolls at 00:00 WAT. In the table, Tigres UANL are 15th, lower half, on 15 points after 16 matches; Guadalajara Chivas are 3rd (among the top four) with 30. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Tigres UANL, last 5: WLLWD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Seattle Sounders, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Guadalajara Chivas, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with U.N.A.M. - Pumas, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Guadalajara Chivas, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.2 for Tigres UANL.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tigres UANL 1.2 xG, Guadalajara Chivas 1.5 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 62%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tigres UANL 34%, draw 26%, Guadalajara Chivas 40%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Guadalajara Chivas to win @2.74 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tigres UANL 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tigres UANL34%fair 2.94 · @2.46
Draw26%fair 3.86 · @3.35
Guadalajara Chivas40%fair 2.50 · @2.74
2.69Expected goals
1.20Tigres UANL xG
1.49Guadalajara Chivas xG
62%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Tigres UANL 1.2 – 1.5 Guadalajara Chivas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Tigres UANL
Guadalajara Chivas
Attack vs Liga MX average
-17%
+8%
Goals conceded vs average
-2%
-25%
Our expected goals here
1.00
1.49
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Guadalajara Chivas to win✗
40%
2.50
2.74 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.62
1.62
Draw no bet
Guadalajara Chivas (draw no bet)✗
54%
1.85
–
Asian handicap
Tigres UANL +1 (Asian handicap)✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
85%
1.18
1.13
First team to score
Guadalajara Chivas to score first
52%
1.94
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Guadalajara Chivas / FT Guadalajara Chivas✗
26%
3.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.06
–
Recent results
Tigres UANL – last 6
WLLWDL
9 Apr
vs Seattle Sounders
2–0
W
4 Apr
@ Club Tijuana
0–1
L
23 Mar
@ FC Juarez
1–2
L
20 Mar
vs FC Cincinnati
5–1
W
16 Mar
vs Club Queretaro
0–0
D
13 Mar
@ FC Cincinnati
0–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Guadalajara Chivas – last 6
DWWWWL
6 Apr
vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2–2
D
22 Mar
@ Monterrey
3–2
W
19 Mar
vs Leon
5–0
W
15 Mar
vs Santos Laguna
3–0
W
8 Mar
@ Atlas
2–1
W
1 Mar
@ Toluca
0–2
L
2.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tigres UANL and Guadalajara Chivas.
What is the prediction for Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Chivas?
On our numbers Tigres UANL have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Guadalajara Chivas 40%.
How many goals will there be in Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Chivas?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our predicted score is Tigres UANL 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Tigres UANL vs Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Universitario (UANL).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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