Value bet: Necaxa to win @ 3.60 – our chance 30% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultTigres UANL to win ✗45% · @1.97
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.26
Necaxa vs Tigres UANL: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 19 April the Liga MX brings Necaxa against Tigres UANL at Estadio Victoria. Kick-off: 00:00 WAT. In the table, Necaxa are 17th, in the drop zone, on 13 points after 16 matches; Tigres UANL are 15th (lower half) with 15. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Necaxa, last 5: LWWDL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Club Queretaro, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Tigres UANL, last 5: LWWLL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Seattle Sounders, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Necaxa 1.2 xG, Tigres UANL 1.5 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Necaxa 30%, draw 26%, Tigres UANL 45%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.65.
Price worth noting: Necaxa to win @3.60 – the bookmaker implies 28%, our ratings say 30%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Necaxa 1–1 Tigres UANL. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Necaxa30%fair 3.36 · @3.60
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @3.50
Tigres UANL45%fair 2.25 · @1.97
2.68Expected goals
1.22Necaxa xG
1.45Tigres UANL xG
57%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
2–17%
0–27%
From our goals model: Necaxa 1.2 – 1.5 Tigres UANL expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
Attack vs Liga MX average
-26%
-17%
Goals conceded vs average
+7%
-2%
Our expected goals here
1.16
1.25
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tigres UANL to win✗
45%
2.25
1.97
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.65
Draw no bet
Tigres UANL (draw no bet)
60%
1.67
–
Asian handicap
Necaxa +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.14
First team to score
Tigres UANL to score first✗
51%
1.98
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tigres UANL / FT Tigres UANL✗
25%
4.01
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.26
–
Recent results
Necaxa – last 6
LWWDLL
12 Apr
@ Club Queretaro
1–3
L
4 Apr
vs Mazatlán
2–1
W
21 Mar
vs Club Tijuana
3–0
W
14 Mar
@ Puebla
0–0
D
7 Mar
vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0–1
L
4 Mar
@ Pachuca
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Tigres UANL – last 6
LWWLLW
16 Apr
@ Seattle Sounders
1–3
L
12 Apr
vs Guadalajara Chivas
4–1
W
9 Apr
vs Seattle Sounders
2–0
W
4 Apr
@ Club Tijuana
0–1
L
23 Mar
@ FC Juarez
1–2
L
20 Mar
vs FC Cincinnati
5–1
W
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Necaxa and Tigres UANL.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Necaxa vs Tigres UANL?
On our numbers Necaxa have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Tigres UANL 45%.
How many goals will there be in Necaxa vs Tigres UANL?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Necaxa vs Tigres UANL?
Our predicted score is Necaxa 1–1 Tigres UANL, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Necaxa vs Tigres UANL?
Necaxa vs Tigres UANL (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Victoria.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Leon3