Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Pachuca to win @ 3.10 – our chance 39% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPachuca to win ✓39% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.32
Monterrey vs Pachuca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Monterrey welcome Pachuca to Estadio BBVA for a Liga MX fixture on Sunday 19 April (02:05 WAT). In the table, Monterrey are 10th, lower half, on 21 points after 15 matches; Pachuca are 8th (upper half) with 22. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Monterrey, last 5: DLLDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Atlas, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Pachuca, last 5: WWDDW Their latest outing: 4–2 win over Santos Laguna, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Momentum favours Pachuca, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.5 for Monterrey.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Monterrey 1.4 xG, Pachuca 1.6 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 64% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Monterrey 38%, draw 23%, Pachuca 39%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.53.
Price worth noting: Pachuca to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (80%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Monterrey 1–1 Pachuca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Monterrey38%fair 2.63 · @2.10
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.75
Pachuca39%fair 2.56 · @3.10
3.03Expected goals
1.43Monterrey xG
1.60Pachuca xG
64%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Monterrey 1.4 – 1.6 Pachuca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Monterrey
Pachuca
Attack vs Liga MX average
+5%
+17%
Goals conceded vs average
+10%
-17%
Our expected goals here
1.40
1.80
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pachuca to win✓
39%
2.56
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.57
1.53
Draw no bet
Pachuca (draw no bet)✓
51%
1.97
–
Asian handicap
Monterrey +1 (Asian handicap)✗
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
63%
1.58
1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.20
First team to score
Pachuca to score first✗
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.54
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pachuca / FT Pachuca✗
25%
4.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.32
–
Recent results
Monterrey – last 6
DLLDDL
12 Apr
@ Atlas
0–0
D
5 Apr
vs Atletico San Luis
1–2
L
22 Mar
vs Guadalajara Chivas
2–3
L
18 Mar
@ Cruz Azul
1–1
D
14 Mar
@ FC Juarez
2–2
D
11 Mar
vs Cruz Azul
2–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Pachuca – last 6
WWDDWW
12 Apr
vs Santos Laguna
4–2
W
5 Apr
@ Cruz Azul
2–1
W
23 Mar
vs Toluca
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ Atletico San Luis
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Puebla
2–1
W
4 Mar
vs Necaxa
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monterrey and Pachuca.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Monterrey vs Pachuca?
On our numbers Monterrey have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Pachuca 39%.
How many goals will there be in Monterrey vs Pachuca?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monterrey vs Pachuca?
Our predicted score is Monterrey 1–1 Pachuca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Monterrey vs Pachuca?
Monterrey vs Pachuca (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 02:05 (West Africa Time) at Estadio BBVA.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Leon3