Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.73 – our chance 62% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultClub America to win ✓39% · @2.66
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 11.69
Club America vs Toluca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Toluca travel to face Club America on Sunday 19 April in the Liga MX, with Estadio Azteca the venue – the ball rolls at 04:10 WAT. In the table, Club America are 2nd, among the top four, on 30 points after 16 matches; Toluca are 4th (among the top four) with 27. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Club America, last 5: LDDDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Nashville SC, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Toluca, last 5: WDWLD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Los Angeles Galaxy, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately.
Momentum favours Toluca, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.7 for Club America.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Club America 1.6 xG, Toluca 1.6 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 55% and GG at 62%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Club America 39%, draw 23%, Toluca 38%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.73 – the bookmaker implies 58%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Club America 1–1 Toluca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Club America39%fair 2.59 · @2.66
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.40
Toluca38%fair 2.63 · @2.50
3.19Expected goals
1.63Club America xG
1.56Toluca xG
62%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–19%
1–28%
1–07%
2–27%
0–16%
From our goals model: Club America 1.6 – 1.6 Toluca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Club America
Toluca
Attack vs Liga MX average
+42%
+30%
Goals conceded vs average
+3%
-8%
Our expected goals here
2.11
1.89
Our own ratings from every Liga MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Club America to win✓
39%
2.59
2.66
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.60
1.73 ▲
Draw no bet
Club America (draw no bet)✓
50%
1.98
–
Asian handicap
Toluca +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.95 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.10
First team to score
Club America to score first✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
38%
2.61
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Club America / FT Club America✓
24%
4.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
11.69
–
Recent results
Club America – last 6
LDDDLD
15 Apr
vs Nashville SC
0–1
L
12 Apr
vs Cruz Azul
1–1
D
8 Apr
@ Nashville SC
0–0
D
5 Apr
@ Santos Laguna
1–1
D
22 Mar
@ U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0–1
L
19 Mar
vs Philadelphia Union
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Toluca – last 6
WDWLDW
16 Apr
@ Los Angeles Galaxy
3–0
W
13 Apr
vs Atletico San Luis
1–1
D
9 Apr
vs Los Angeles Galaxy
4–2
W
5 Apr
@ Club Queretaro
0–1
L
23 Mar
@ Pachuca
1–1
D
19 Mar
vs San Diego
4–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Club America and Toluca.
What is the prediction for Club America vs Toluca?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Club America vs Toluca?
On our numbers Club America have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Toluca 38%.
How many goals will there be in Club America vs Toluca?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Club America vs Toluca?
Our predicted score is Club America 1–1 Toluca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Club America vs Toluca?
Club America vs Toluca (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 04:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Azteca.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Leon3