Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Lexington travel to face Las Vegas Lights on Sunday 3 May in the USL Championship, with Cashman Field the venue – the ball rolls at 03:30 WAT. In the table, Las Vegas Lights are 11th, in the drop zone, on 36 points after 30 matches; Lexington are 4th (among the top four) with 48. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Las Vegas Lights, last 5: DLDLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Boise, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Lexington, last 5: WDLLL Their latest outing: 4–2 win over Forward Madison, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Las Vegas Lights 1.4 xG, Lexington 1.6 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 53% for three or more goals, 61% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Las Vegas Lights 35%, draw 24%, Lexington 41%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Las Vegas Lights 1–1 Lexington. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Las Vegas Lights35%fair 2.88 · @2.65
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.20
Lexington41%fair 2.44 · @2.40
3.01Expected goals
1.38Las Vegas Lights xG
1.63Lexington xG
61%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
1–07%
0–27%
From our goals model: Las Vegas Lights 1.4 – 1.6 Lexington expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Las Vegas Lights
Lexington
Attack vs USL Championship average
-1%
+45%
Goals conceded vs average
+11%
-0%
Our expected goals here
1.49
1.95
Our own ratings from every USL Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lexington to win✗
41%
2.44
2.40
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.65
1.70
Draw no bet
Lexington (draw no bet)✗
54%
1.85
–
Asian handicap
Las Vegas Lights +1 (Asian handicap)✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
–
First team to score
Lexington to score first
51%
1.94
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.53
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lexington / FT Lexington✗
26%
3.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.08
–
Recent results
Las Vegas Lights – last 6
DLDLWL
26 Apr
vs Boise
1–1
D
23 Apr
@ Oakland Roots
2–4
L
12 Apr
vs Sacramento Republic
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ El Paso Locomotive
2–3
L
29 Mar
vs Monterey Bay
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ FC Tulsa
2–3
L
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Lexington – last 6
WDLLLW
26 Apr
vs Forward Madison
4–2
W
19 Apr
@ Orange County SC
0–0
D
12 Apr
vs Rhode Island
1–3
L
2 Apr
vs Louisville City
0–2
L
29 Mar
@ San Antonio
0–2
L
26 Mar
vs Brooklyn
3–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Las Vegas Lights and Lexington.
What is the prediction for Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington?
On our numbers Las Vegas Lights have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Lexington 41%.
How many goals will there be in Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington?
Our predicted score is Las Vegas Lights 1–1 Lexington, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington?
Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 03:30 (West Africa Time) at Cashman Field.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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