Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
1
Value bet: Sacramento Republic to win @ 1.85 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSacramento Republic to win ✓60% · @1.85
Double chanceSacramento Republic or draw ✓84% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.60
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.26
Sacramento Republic vs Orange County SC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
03:00 WAT, Sunday 3 May: Sacramento Republic v Orange County SC in the USL Championship, played at Heart Health Park. In the table, Sacramento Republic are 2nd, among the top four, on 51 points after 30 matches; Orange County SC are 9th (lower half) with 39. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Sacramento Republic, last 5: WDDWW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Spokane Velocity, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Orange County SC, last 5: LDWWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to El Paso Locomotive, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Sacramento Republic, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.3 for Orange County SC.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sacramento Republic 1.7 xG, Orange County SC 0.7 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 48%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sacramento Republic 60%, draw 24%, Orange County SC 16%.
Lower-risk option: Sacramento Republic or draw (84%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.60.
Price worth noting: Sacramento Republic to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (66%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sacramento Republic 2–0 Orange County SC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sacramento Republic60%fair 1.67 · @1.85
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @3.10
Orange County SC16%fair 6.31 · @4.10
2.34Expected goals
1.65Sacramento Republic xG
0.68Orange County SC xG
48%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Sacramento Republic 1.7 – 0.7 Orange County SC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Sacramento Republic
Orange County SC
Attack vs USL Championship average
+11%
-4%
Goals conceded vs average
-27%
+30%
Our expected goals here
2.18
0.86
Our own ratings from every USL Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sacramento Republic to win✓
60%
1.67
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Sacramento Republic or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
1.60
Draw no bet
Sacramento Republic (draw no bet)✓
79%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
Sacramento Republic -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.66
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.26
1.17
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Sacramento Republic to score first✗
64%
1.57
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sacramento Republic / FT Sacramento Republic✗
37%
2.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.26
–
Recent results
Sacramento Republic – last 6
WDDWWL
26 Apr
vs Spokane Velocity
4–0
W
22 Apr
@ Brooklyn
1–1
D
12 Apr
@ Las Vegas Lights
1–1
D
5 Apr
vs Phoenix Rising
2–0
W
1 Apr
@ Valley 559 FC
4–0
W
29 Mar
vs El Paso Locomotive
1–2
L
2.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Orange County SC – last 6
LDWWLD
26 Apr
vs El Paso Locomotive
1–2
L
19 Apr
vs Lexington
0–0
D
12 Apr
@ FC Tulsa
1–0
W
9 Apr
vs San Antonio
2–0
W
5 Apr
vs New Mexico United
0–1
L
2 Apr
vs Phoenix Rising
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sacramento Republic and Orange County SC.
What is the prediction for Sacramento Republic vs Orange County SC?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Sacramento Republic vs Orange County SC?
On our numbers Sacramento Republic have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Orange County SC 16%.
How many goals will there be in Sacramento Republic vs Orange County SC?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sacramento Republic vs Orange County SC?
Our predicted score is Sacramento Republic 2–0 Orange County SC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Sacramento Republic vs Orange County SC?
Sacramento Republic vs Orange County SC (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Heart Health Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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