Tampa Bay Rowdies 62%Draw 22%Indy Eleven 15%Expected goals 1.90 – 0.82
67%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
Picks by market
ResultTampa Bay Rowdies to win ✓62% · @1.55
Double chanceTampa Bay Rowdies or draw ✓85% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗77% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.26
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Indy Eleven: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
00:30 WAT, Sunday 3 May: Tampa Bay Rowdies v Indy Eleven in the USL Championship, played at Al Lang Stadium. In the table, Tampa Bay Rowdies are 1st, leading the league, on 61 points after 30 matches; Indy Eleven are 9th (lower half) with 34. There are 27 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Tampa Bay Rowdies, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Sarasota Paradise, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Indy Eleven, last 5: LWDLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Union Omaha, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Tampa Bay Rowdies, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.7 for Indy Eleven.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.9 xG, Indy Eleven 0.8 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tampa Bay Rowdies 62%, draw 22%, Indy Eleven 15%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.65.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (67%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tampa Bay Rowdies 1–0 Indy Eleven. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tampa Bay Rowdies62%fair 1.61 · @1.55
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @4.00
Indy Eleven15%fair 6.46 · @5.00
2.72Expected goals
1.90Tampa Bay Rowdies xG
0.82Indy Eleven xG
59%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.9 – 0.8 Indy Eleven expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Indy Eleven
Attack vs USL Championship average
+12%
-20%
Goals conceded vs average
-25%
+4%
Our expected goals here
1.75
0.73
Our own ratings from every USL Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tampa Bay Rowdies to win✓
62%
1.61
1.55
Double chance
Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.70
1.65
Draw no bet
Tampa Bay Rowdies (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
Tampa Bay Rowdies -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.48
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Tampa Bay Rowdies to score first✓
65%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Tampa Bay Rowdies ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tampa Bay Rowdies / FT Tampa Bay Rowdies✗
40%
2.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.26
–
Recent results
Tampa Bay Rowdies – last 6
WDWWWW
26 Apr
vs Sarasota Paradise
2–0
W
12 Apr
vs Oakland Roots
2–2
D
5 Apr
@ Sporting JAX
1–0
W
29 Mar
vs Loudoun United
3–1
W
22 Mar
vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds
3–0
W
8 Mar
@ Birmingham Legion
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Indy Eleven – last 6
LWDLWW
26 Apr
vs Union Omaha
1–2
L
12 Apr
vs Monterey Bay
3–1
W
5 Apr
vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1–1
D
1 Apr
vs Union Omaha
1–2
L
22 Mar
vs Detroit City
2–1
W
18 Mar
vs Des Moines Menace
3–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tampa Bay Rowdies and Indy Eleven.
What is the prediction for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Indy Eleven?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Indy Eleven?
On our numbers Tampa Bay Rowdies have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Indy Eleven 15%.
How many goals will there be in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Indy Eleven?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Indy Eleven?
Our predicted score is Tampa Bay Rowdies 1–0 Indy Eleven, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Indy Eleven?
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Indy Eleven (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Al Lang Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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