Louisville City vs Tampa Bay Rowdies: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 31 May the USL Championship brings Louisville City against Tampa Bay Rowdies at Lynn Family Stadium. Kick-off: 00:00 WAT. In the table, Louisville City are 4th, among the top four, on 47 points after 30 matches; Tampa Bay Rowdies are 1st (leading the league) with 61. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Louisville City, last 5: LWLLD Their latest outing: 3–4 defeat to Miami FC, away. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.
Tampa Bay Rowdies, last 5: WWWDW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Phoenix Rising, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Tampa Bay Rowdies, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.2 for Louisville City.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Louisville City 1.5 xG, Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.3 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Louisville City 47%, draw 25%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 28%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.65.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Louisville City 1–1 Tampa Bay Rowdies. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Louisville City47%fair 2.13 · @1.85
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @3.50
Tampa Bay Rowdies28%fair 3.59 · @3.55
2.76Expected goals
1.50Louisville City xG
1.26Tampa Bay Rowdies xG
60%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Louisville City 1.5 – 1.3 Tampa Bay Rowdies expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Louisville City
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Attack vs USL Championship average
+17%
+12%
Goals conceded vs average
-1%
-25%
Our expected goals here
1.32
1.34
Our own ratings from every USL Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Louisville City to win✗
47%
2.13
1.85
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.65
Draw no bet
Louisville City (draw no bet)✗
63%
1.59
–
Asian handicap
Tampa Bay Rowdies +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.91
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
–
First team to score
Louisville City to score first✗
51%
1.96
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Louisville City / FT Louisville City✗
25%
3.94
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.13
–
Recent results
Louisville City – last 6
LWLLDW
24 May
@ Miami FC
3–4
L
17 May
@ Union Omaha
5–1
W
10 May
vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds
0–2
L
2 May
@ Detroit City
1–2
L
30 Apr
@ Houston Dynamo
1–1
D
26 Apr
vs Fort Wayne
3–1
W
2.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Tampa Bay Rowdies – last 6
WWWDWW
24 May
vs Phoenix Rising
3–0
W
21 May
@ New Mexico United
1–0
W
17 May
@ Miami FC
4–1
W
10 May
@ Rhode Island
1–1
D
3 May
vs Indy Eleven
1–0
W
26 Apr
vs Sarasota Paradise
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Louisville City and Tampa Bay Rowdies.
What is the prediction for Louisville City vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Louisville City vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
On our numbers Louisville City have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Tampa Bay Rowdies 28%.
How many goals will there be in Louisville City vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Louisville City vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Our predicted score is Louisville City 1–1 Tampa Bay Rowdies, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Louisville City vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Louisville City vs Tampa Bay Rowdies (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 31 May 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Lynn Family Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
New Mexico United0
Oakland Roots0
Colorado Springs1
El Paso Locomotive1
Lexington4
Monterey Bay4
Las Vegas Lights0
FC Tulsa0
Phoenix Rising2
Sacramento Republic0