Double chanceSacramento Republic or draw ✗77% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.18
Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
New Mexico United travel to face Sacramento Republic on Sunday 21 June in the USL Championship, with Heart Health Park the venue – the ball rolls at 04:00 WAT. In the table, Sacramento Republic are 2nd, among the top four, on 51 points after 30 matches; New Mexico United are 1st (leading the league) with 52. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Sacramento Republic, last 5: WLLWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Colorado Springs, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
New Mexico United, last 5: DWDWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Orange County SC, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Sacramento Republic, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for New Mexico United.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sacramento Republic 1.4 xG, New Mexico United 1.0 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sacramento Republic 50%, draw 27%, New Mexico United 23%.
Lower-risk option: Sacramento Republic or draw (77%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sacramento Republic 1–0 New Mexico United. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sacramento Republic50%fair 2.00 · @1.85
Draw27%fair 3.68 · @3.35
New Mexico United23%fair 4.38 · @3.75
2.41Expected goals
1.42Sacramento Republic xG
0.99New Mexico United xG
55%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–113%
2–09%
0–09%
2–19%
0–19%
From our goals model: Sacramento Republic 1.4 – 1.0 New Mexico United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Sacramento Republic
New Mexico United
Attack vs USL Championship average
+11%
+23%
Goals conceded vs average
-27%
-22%
Our expected goals here
1.30
1.10
Our own ratings from every USL Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sacramento Republic to win✗
50%
2.00
1.85
Double chance
Sacramento Republic or draw✗
77%
1.30
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
1.75
Draw no bet
Sacramento Republic (draw no bet)✗
69%
1.46
–
Asian handicap
New Mexico United +1 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Sacramento Republic to score first✗
53%
1.87
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sacramento Republic / FT Sacramento Republic✗
28%
3.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.18
–
Recent results
Sacramento Republic – last 6
WLLWWW
14 Jun
@ Colorado Springs
1–0
W
31 May
@ Phoenix Rising
0–2
L
24 May
@ San Antonio
1–2
L
17 May
@ Oakland Roots
1–0
W
3 May
vs Orange County SC
3–2
W
26 Apr
vs Spokane Velocity
4–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
New Mexico United – last 6
DWDWLL
14 Jun
vs Orange County SC
1–1
D
7 Jun
vs Phoenix Rising
4–0
W
31 May
@ Hartford Athletic
0–0
D
24 May
vs Charleston Battery
1–0
W
21 May
vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
0–1
L
17 May
@ Colorado Springs
0–4
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sacramento Republic and New Mexico United.
What is the prediction for Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United?
On our numbers Sacramento Republic have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 27% and New Mexico United 23%.
How many goals will there be in Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United?
Our predicted score is Sacramento Republic 1–0 New Mexico United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United?
Sacramento Republic vs New Mexico United (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 21 June 2026 at 04:00 (West Africa Time) at Heart Health Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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