Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Sacramento Republic to win @ 1.91 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSacramento Republic to win ✗56% · @1.91
Double chanceSacramento Republic or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.66
Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
04:00 WAT, Sunday 23 August: Sacramento Republic v Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship, played at Heart Health Park. In the table, Sacramento Republic are 2nd, among the top four, on 51 points after 30 matches; Phoenix Rising are 8th (lower half) with 40.
Current form
Sacramento Republic, last 5: WDLWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Lexington, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Phoenix Rising, last 5: WLDDW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Colorado Springs, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Sacramento Republic, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.3 for Phoenix Rising.
Head to head
When they last met (31 May 2026) it ended Phoenix Rising 2–0 Sacramento Republic. The last 2 head-to-heads: Sacramento Republic 1 win, Phoenix Rising 1, draws 0. Those games averaged 2.0 goals.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sacramento Republic 1.6 xG, Phoenix Rising 0.8 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sacramento Republic 56%, draw 25%, Phoenix Rising 18%.
Lower-risk option: Sacramento Republic or draw (82%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Sacramento Republic to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Sacramento Republic or draw (82%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sacramento Republic 1–0 Phoenix Rising. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sacramento Republic56%fair 1.78 · @1.91
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.30
Phoenix Rising18%fair 5.43 · @3.40
2.44Expected goals
1.62Sacramento Republic xG
0.82Phoenix Rising xG
56%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–112%
2–011%
2–19%
0–09%
0–17%
From our goals model: Sacramento Republic 1.6 – 0.8 Phoenix Rising expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
Our pick is Sacramento Republic or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
On our numbers Sacramento Republic have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Phoenix Rising 18%.
How many goals will there be in Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
Our predicted score is Sacramento Republic 1–0 Phoenix Rising, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising?
Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 04:00 (West Africa Time) at Heart Health Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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