El Paso Locomotive 65%Draw 21%New Mexico United 14%Expected goals 2.01 – 0.80
86%
Betarazi pick
El Paso Locomotive or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: El Paso Locomotive to win @ 1.70 – our chance 65% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultEl Paso Locomotive to win ✗65% · @1.70
Double chanceEl Paso Locomotive or draw ✗86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.27
El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
New Mexico United travel to face El Paso Locomotive on Sunday 25 October in the USL Championship, with Southwest University Park the venue – the ball rolls at 01:00 WAT. In the table, El Paso Locomotive are 3rd, among the top four, on 50 points after 30 matches; New Mexico United are 1st (leading the league) with 52. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
El Paso Locomotive, last 5: LWLDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Sacramento Republic, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
New Mexico United, last 5: LWWLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to San Antonio, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours El Paso Locomotive, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for New Mexico United.
Head to head
When they last met (12 Jul 2026) it ended El Paso Locomotive 0–2 New Mexico United. The last 3 head-to-heads: El Paso Locomotive 1 win, New Mexico United 1, draws 1. Those games averaged 3.3 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give El Paso Locomotive 2.0 xG, New Mexico United 0.8 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – El Paso Locomotive 65%, draw 21%, New Mexico United 14%.
Lower-risk option: El Paso Locomotive or draw (86%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.50.
Price worth noting: El Paso Locomotive to win @1.70 – the bookmaker implies 59%, our ratings say 65%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was El Paso Locomotive or draw (86%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.16, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: El Paso Locomotive 2–0 New Mexico United. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
El Paso Locomotive65%fair 1.54 · @1.70
Draw21%fair 4.71 · @3.75
New Mexico United14%fair 7.31 · @3.90
2.81Expected goals
2.01El Paso Locomotive xG
0.80New Mexico United xG
59%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: El Paso Locomotive 2.0 – 0.8 New Mexico United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United?
Our pick is El Paso Locomotive or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United?
On our numbers El Paso Locomotive have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and New Mexico United 14%.
How many goals will there be in El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United?
Our predicted score is El Paso Locomotive 2–0 New Mexico United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United?
El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Southwest University Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Hartford Athletic2
Rhode Island1
Louisville City0
Detroit City0
Pittsburgh Riverhounds2
Birmingham Legion1
Tampa Bay Rowdies2
Sporting JAX0