Almagro 34%Draw 30%San Martin S.J. 36%Expected goals 1.08 – 1.05
68%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.47 · bookmaker 1.30 · Lost ✗
7/10Rating
1.30Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.45 – our chance 51% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSan Martin S.J. to win ✓36% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✓70% · @1.40
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.45
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓7% · fair 14.08
Almagro vs San Martin S.J.: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 17 May the Primera Nacional brings Almagro against San Martin S.J. at Estadio Tres de Febrero. Kick-off: 19:30 WAT. In the table, Almagro are 15th, lower half, on 42 points after 36 matches; San Martin S.J. are 9th (upper half) with 51.
Current form
Almagro, last 4: WDLD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Nueva Chicago, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
San Martin S.J., last 5: LDDDL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Atlanta, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Almagro, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.5 for San Martin S.J..
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Almagro 1.1 xG, San Martin S.J. 1.1 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 68%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Almagro 34%, draw 30%, San Martin S.J. 36%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.45.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.45 – the bookmaker implies 41%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (68%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Almagro 1–1 San Martin S.J.. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Almagro34%fair 2.98 · @3.10
Draw30%fair 3.33 · @2.55
San Martin S.J.36%fair 2.75 · @2.55
2.13Expected goals
1.08Almagro xG
1.05San Martin S.J. xG
51%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–112%
0–012%
2–17%
1–27%
From our goals model: Almagro 1.1 – 1.1 San Martin S.J. expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Almagro
San Martin S.J.
Attack vs Primera Nacional average
+5%
+24%
Goals conceded vs average
+23%
+5%
Our expected goals here
1.36
1.18
Our own ratings from every Primera Nacional result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
San Martin S.J. to win✓
36%
2.75
2.55
Double chance
Either team to win✓
70%
1.43
1.40
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
2.45 ▲
Draw no bet
San Martin S.J. (draw no bet)✓
52%
1.92
–
Asian handicap
San Martin S.J. +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.77
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.30
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
First team to score
Almagro to score first
45%
2.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
20%
4.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
7%
14.08
–
Recent results
Almagro – last 4
WDLD
11 May
@ Nueva Chicago
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Midland
1–1
D
28 Feb
@ Gimnasia Y Tiro
0–2
L
14 Feb
@ Atletico DE Rafaela
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
San Martin S.J. – last 6
LDDDLL
14 Apr
vs Atlanta
1–2
L
4 Apr
@ Gimnasia Y Tiro
1–1
D
28 Mar
vs Racing Cordoba
0–0
D
21 Mar
vs San Martin Tucuman
1–1
D
14 Mar
@ Atletico DE Rafaela
0–1
L
2 Mar
@ Tristan Suarez
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Almagro and San Martin S.J..
What is the prediction for Almagro vs San Martin S.J.?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Almagro vs San Martin S.J.?
On our numbers Almagro have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 30% and San Martin S.J. 36%.
How many goals will there be in Almagro vs San Martin S.J.?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Almagro vs San Martin S.J.?
Our predicted score is Almagro 1–1 San Martin S.J., the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Almagro vs San Martin S.J.?
Almagro vs San Martin S.J. (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Tres de Febrero.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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