Gimnasia Y Tiro 38%Draw 30%San Martin Tucuman 32%Expected goals 1.19 – 0.91
67%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.33Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.30 – our chance 51% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultGimnasia Y Tiro to win ✓38% · @2.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✓70% · @1.38
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.30
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.64
Gimnasia Y Tiro vs San Martin Tucuman: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Gimnasia Y Tiro welcome San Martin Tucuman to Estadio El Gigante del Norte for a Primera Nacional fixture on Sunday 17 May (21:00 WAT). In the table, Gimnasia Y Tiro are 8th, upper half, on 52 points after 36 matches; San Martin Tucuman are 10th (lower half) with 47.
Current form
Gimnasia Y Tiro, last 5: LLDDL Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Agropecuario, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
San Martin Tucuman, last 5: WWDDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Gimnasia Jujuy, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours San Martin Tucuman, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.3 for Gimnasia Y Tiro.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Gimnasia Y Tiro 1.2 xG, San Martin Tucuman 0.9 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 67%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Gimnasia Y Tiro 38%, draw 30%, San Martin Tucuman 32%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.30.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.30 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (67%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Gimnasia Y Tiro 1–0 San Martin Tucuman. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Gimnasia Y Tiro38%fair 2.64 · @2.85
Draw30%fair 3.35 · @2.60
San Martin Tucuman32%fair 3.10 · @2.75
2.10Expected goals
1.19Gimnasia Y Tiro xG
0.91San Martin Tucuman xG
51%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–113%
0–012%
0–111%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Gimnasia Y Tiro 1.2 – 0.9 San Martin Tucuman expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Gimnasia Y Tiro
San Martin Tucuman
Attack vs Primera Nacional average
+4%
+14%
Goals conceded vs average
-6%
+11%
Our expected goals here
1.42
0.84
Our own ratings from every Primera Nacional result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gimnasia Y Tiro to win✓
38%
2.64
2.85 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
70%
1.43
1.38
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
2.30 ▲
Draw no bet
Gimnasia Y Tiro (draw no bet)✓
54%
1.85
–
Asian handicap
San Martin Tucuman +1 (Asian handicap)
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
58%
1.71
1.70
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.33
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.07
–
First team to score
Gimnasia Y Tiro to score first✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gimnasia Y Tiro / FT Gimnasia Y Tiro✗
24%
4.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.64
–
Recent results
Gimnasia Y Tiro – last 6
LLDDLL
5 May
vs Agropecuario
2–3
L
1 May
@ Velez Sarsfield
0–2
L
20 Apr
vs Club Atlético Güemes
1–1
D
4 Apr
vs San Martin S.J.
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Central Norte
0–1
L
23 Mar
@ Nueva Chicago
1–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
San Martin Tucuman – last 6
WWDDDD
13 May
vs Gimnasia Jujuy
2–0
W
3 May
vs Atletico DE Rafaela
2–1
W
19 Apr
vs Tristan Suarez
0–0
D
29 Mar
@ Deportivo Madryn
1–1
D
21 Mar
@ San Martin S.J.
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Patronato
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gimnasia Y Tiro and San Martin Tucuman.
What is the prediction for Gimnasia Y Tiro vs San Martin Tucuman?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Gimnasia Y Tiro vs San Martin Tucuman?
On our numbers Gimnasia Y Tiro have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 30% and San Martin Tucuman 32%.
How many goals will there be in Gimnasia Y Tiro vs San Martin Tucuman?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gimnasia Y Tiro vs San Martin Tucuman?
Our predicted score is Gimnasia Y Tiro 1–0 San Martin Tucuman, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Gimnasia Y Tiro vs San Martin Tucuman?
Gimnasia Y Tiro vs San Martin Tucuman (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Gigante del Norte.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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