Value bet: Deportivo Madryn to win @ 2.20 – our chance 49% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDeportivo Madryn to win ✗49% · @2.20
Double chanceDeportivo Madryn or draw ✗76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.60
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.20
Deportivo Madryn vs Ferro Carril Oeste: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 17 May the Primera Nacional brings Deportivo Madryn against Ferro Carril Oeste at Estadio Abel Sastre. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT. In the table, Deportivo Madryn are 4th, among the top four, on 60 points after 36 matches; Ferro Carril Oeste are 2nd (among the top four) with 66.
Current form
Deportivo Madryn, last 3: DLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with San Martin Tucuman, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Ferro Carril Oeste, last 4: WLLD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Defensores De Belgrano, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Ferro Carril Oeste, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.3 for Deportivo Madryn.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Deportivo Madryn 1.4 xG, Ferro Carril Oeste 0.7 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Deportivo Madryn 49%, draw 27%, Ferro Carril Oeste 24%.
Lower-risk option: Deportivo Madryn or draw (76%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.60.
Price worth noting: Deportivo Madryn to win @2.20 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 49%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Deportivo Madryn or draw (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportivo Madryn 1–0 Ferro Carril Oeste. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Deportivo Madryn49%fair 2.06 · @2.20
Draw27%fair 3.66 · @2.90
Ferro Carril Oeste24%fair 4.16 · @3.40
2.19Expected goals
1.44Deportivo Madryn xG
0.75Ferro Carril Oeste xG
49%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
1–112%
2–012%
0–011%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Deportivo Madryn 1.4 – 0.7 Ferro Carril Oeste expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Deportivo Madryn
Ferro Carril Oeste
Attack vs Primera Nacional average
+35%
-7%
Goals conceded vs average
-18%
-5%
Our expected goals here
1.58
0.60
Our own ratings from every Primera Nacional result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Madryn to win✗
49%
2.06
2.20 ▲
Double chance
Deportivo Madryn or draw✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.98
1.60
Draw no bet
Deportivo Madryn (draw no bet)✗
67%
1.50
–
Asian handicap
Ferro Carril Oeste +1 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
62%
1.60
1.53
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
Deportivo Madryn to score first✗
58%
1.71
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportivo Madryn / FT Deportivo Madryn✗
32%
3.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.20
–
Recent results
Deportivo Madryn – last 3
DLL
29 Mar
vs San Martin Tucuman
1–1
D
25 Feb
@ San Martin S.J.
0–2
L
15 Feb
@ Colon Santa Fe
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Ferro Carril Oeste – last 4
WLLD
11 May
vs Defensores De Belgrano
2–1
W
28 Apr
vs Almirante Brown
0–1
L
21 Mar
vs Los Andes
0–2
L
1 Mar
@ Colon Santa Fe
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportivo Madryn and Ferro Carril Oeste.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Madryn vs Ferro Carril Oeste?
Our pick is Deportivo Madryn or draw with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Deportivo Madryn vs Ferro Carril Oeste?
On our numbers Deportivo Madryn have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Ferro Carril Oeste 24%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Madryn vs Ferro Carril Oeste?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Madryn vs Ferro Carril Oeste?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Madryn 1–0 Ferro Carril Oeste, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Madryn vs Ferro Carril Oeste?
Deportivo Madryn vs Ferro Carril Oeste (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Abel Sastre.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Almagro1
San Martin S.J.2
Gimnasia Jujuy1
Temperley0
Patronato2
Chacarita Juniors0
Midland2
Agropecuario0
Deportivo Maipu1
Nueva Chicago0
Gimnasia Y Tiro1
San Martin Tucuman0
Quilmes0
Tristan Suarez1