Value bet: Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win @ 2.20 – our chance 49% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSanfrecce Hiroshima to win ✗49% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.29
Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
11:00 WAT, Wednesday 18 March: Nagoya Grampus v Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the J1 League, played at Toyota Stadium. In the table, Nagoya Grampus are 3rd, among the top four, on 31 points after 18 matches; Sanfrecce Hiroshima are 4th (among the top four) with 30. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Nagoya Grampus, last 3: LWL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Vissel Kobe, at home. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima, last 5: WWLLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Gamba Osaka, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.0 for Nagoya Grampus.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nagoya Grampus 1.1 xG, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.8 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 51% for three or more goals, 57% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nagoya Grampus 27%, draw 24%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 49%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.77.
Price worth noting: Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win @2.20 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 49%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nagoya Grampus27%fair 3.67 · @3.10
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @3.40
Sanfrecce Hiroshima49%fair 2.04 · @2.20
2.91Expected goals
1.14Nagoya Grampus xG
1.77Sanfrecce Hiroshima xG
57%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–210%
0–110%
0–29%
2–16%
1–06%
From our goals model: Nagoya Grampus 1.1 – 1.8 Sanfrecce Hiroshima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win✗
49%
2.04
2.20 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
1.77
Draw no bet
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw no bet)✗
64%
1.56
–
Asian handicap
Nagoya Grampus +1 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
2.00
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.09
First team to score
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score first✗
57%
1.74
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.51
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sanfrecce Hiroshima / FT Sanfrecce Hiroshima✗
32%
3.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.29
–
Recent results
Nagoya Grampus – last 3
LWL
14 Mar
vs Vissel Kobe
0–3
L
7 Mar
@ Avispa Fukuoka
5–1
W
21 Feb
vs V-varen Nagasaki
1–3
L
2.0Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Sanfrecce Hiroshima – last 6
WWLLWD
14 Mar
vs Gamba Osaka
2–0
W
11 Mar
vs Johor Darul Takzim FC
1–0
W
4 Mar
@ Johor Darul Takzim FC
1–3
L
27 Feb
vs Kyoto Sanga
1–2
L
22 Feb
@ Cerezo Osaka
2–1
W
17 Feb
@ FC Seoul
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nagoya Grampus and Sanfrecce Hiroshima.
What is the prediction for Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
On our numbers Nagoya Grampus have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sanfrecce Hiroshima 49%.
How many goals will there be in Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Our predicted score is Nagoya Grampus 1–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (J1 League) kicks off on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Toyota Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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