Alianza Valledupar vs Millonarios: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Alianza Valledupar welcome Millonarios to Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau for a Primera A fixture on Sunday 3 May (21:30 WAT). In the table, Alianza Valledupar are 16th, lower half, on 18 points after 18 matches; Millonarios are 7th (upper half) with 27.
Current form
Alianza Valledupar, last 5: DLWDL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Llaneros, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Millonarios, last 5: DWLWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Sao Paulo, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alianza Valledupar 1.0 xG, Millonarios 1.4 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alianza Valledupar 29%, draw 26%, Millonarios 45%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.95.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alianza Valledupar 1–1 Millonarios. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alianza Valledupar29%fair 3.40 · @3.10
Draw26%fair 3.84 · @3.30
Millonarios45%fair 2.24 · @2.26
2.42Expected goals
1.01Alianza Valledupar xG
1.41Millonarios xG
53%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–113%
1–09%
1–29%
0–09%
0–29%
From our goals model: Alianza Valledupar 1.0 – 1.4 Millonarios expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Alianza Valledupar
Millonarios
Attack vs Primera A average
-19%
+17%
Goals conceded vs average
+22%
-19%
Our expected goals here
0.97
1.51
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Millonarios to win
45%
2.24
2.26
Double chance
Either team to win
74%
1.35
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
53%
1.87
1.95
Draw no bet
Millonarios (draw no bet)
60%
1.66
–
Asian handicap
Alianza Valledupar +1 (Asian handicap)
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
68%
1.46
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
57%
1.74
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
78%
1.28
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
90%
1.12
1.06
First team to score
Millonarios to score first
53%
1.88
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Millonarios / FT Millonarios
27%
3.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
9%
11.21
–
Recent results
Alianza Valledupar – last 6
DLWDLW
27 Apr
@ Llaneros
0–0
D
13 Apr
@ Internacional de Bogota
1–2
L
6 Apr
@ Deportivo Pereira
3–2
W
1 Apr
vs Deportivo Pasto
0–0
D
27 Mar
@ Águilas Doradas
0–1
L
19 Mar
vs Jaguares
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Millonarios – last 6
DWLWLL
29 Apr
vs Sao Paulo
0–0
D
24 Apr
vs Deportes Tolima
2–0
W
20 Apr
@ America de Cali
1–3
L
16 Apr
vs Boston River
1–0
W
8 Apr
@ O'Higgins
0–2
L
3 Apr
@ Jaguares
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alianza Valledupar and Millonarios.
What is the prediction for Alianza Valledupar vs Millonarios?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Alianza Valledupar vs Millonarios?
On our numbers Alianza Valledupar have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Millonarios 45%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Valledupar vs Millonarios?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza Valledupar vs Millonarios?
Our predicted score is Alianza Valledupar 1–1 Millonarios, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Alianza Valledupar vs Millonarios?
Alianza Valledupar vs Millonarios (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
