Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.20
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Deportivo Cali to win @ 3.15 – our chance 34% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultDeportes Tolima to win37% · @2.28
Double chanceEither team to win71% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score53% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals81% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–17% · fair 14.91
Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Cali: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Deportivo Cali travel to face Deportes Tolima on Sunday 3 May in the Primera A, with Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro the venue – the ball rolls at 21:30 WAT. In the table, Deportes Tolima are 9th, upper half, on 26 points after 18 matches; Deportivo Cali are 3rd (among the top four) with 34.
Current form
Deportes Tolima, last 5: WLWLL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Coquimbo Unido, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Deportivo Cali, last 5: WLWWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over America de Cali, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Deportivo Cali, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Deportes Tolima.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Deportes Tolima 1.0 xG, Deportivo Cali 1.1 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 62%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Deportes Tolima 37%, draw 29%, Deportivo Cali 34%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Deportivo Cali to win @3.15 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 34%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (81%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Deportes Tolima 0–1 Deportivo Cali. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Deportes Tolima37%fair 2.70 · @2.28
Draw29%fair 3.45 · @3.15
Deportivo Cali34%fair 2.94 · @3.15
2.07Expected goals
0.99Deportes Tolima xG
1.08Deportivo Cali xG
53%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–113%
0–013%
1–013%
0–27%
1–27%
From our goals model: Deportes Tolima 1.0 – 1.1 Deportivo Cali expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Cali
Attack vs Primera A average
+1%
+5%
Goals conceded vs average
-7%
-47%
Our expected goals here
0.79
1.04
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportes Tolima to win
37%
2.70
2.28
Double chance
Either team to win
71%
1.41
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
53%
1.90
1.95
Draw no bet
Deportes Tolima (draw no bet)
52%
1.92
–
Asian handicap
Deportes Tolima +0.5 (Asian handicap)
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
64%
1.57
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
62%
1.61
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
81%
1.23
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
91%
1.09
1.06
First team to score
Deportivo Cali to score first
45%
2.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw
21%
4.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
7%
14.91
–
Recent results
Deportes Tolima – last 6
WLWLLD
29 Apr
vs Coquimbo Unido
3–0
W
24 Apr
@ Millonarios
0–2
L
19 Apr
vs Deportivo Pereira
2–0
W
14 Apr
@ Club Nacional
1–3
L
11 Apr
@ Deportivo Pasto
0–1
L
8 Apr
vs Universitario
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Deportivo Cali – last 6
WLWWDL
26 Apr
vs America de Cali
1–0
W
17 Apr
@ Chico
0–1
L
4 Apr
@ Junior
2–1
W
29 Mar
vs Deportivo Pereira
1–0
W
19 Mar
vs Santa Fe
1–1
D
7 Mar
vs Once Caldas
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportes Tolima and Deportivo Cali.
What is the prediction for Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Cali?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Cali?
On our numbers Deportes Tolima have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Deportivo Cali 34%.
How many goals will there be in Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Cali?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Cali?
Our predicted score is Deportes Tolima 0–1 Deportivo Cali, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Cali?
Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Cali (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
