Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Junior to win @ 1.84 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultJunior to win ✓60% · @1.84
Double chanceJunior or draw ✓83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.31
Junior vs Deportivo Pasto: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 3 May the Primera A brings Junior against Deportivo Pasto at Estadio Romelio Martinez. Kick-off: 23:45 WAT. In the table, Junior are 14th, lower half, on 19 points after 18 matches; Deportivo Pasto are 18th (in the drop zone) with 15.
Current form
Junior, last 5: LWLDL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Sporting Cristal, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Deportivo Pasto, last 5: LWWDL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Santa Fe, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Deportivo Pasto, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Junior.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Junior 1.9 xG, Deportivo Pasto 0.8 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Junior 60%, draw 23%, Deportivo Pasto 17%.
Lower-risk option: Junior or draw (83%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.93.
Price worth noting: Junior to win @1.84 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Junior or draw (83%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Junior 1–0 Deportivo Pasto. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Junior60%fair 1.67 · @1.84
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.45
Deportivo Pasto17%fair 5.95 · @4.20
2.66Expected goals
1.85Junior xG
0.81Deportivo Pasto xG
53%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Junior 1.9 – 0.8 Deportivo Pasto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Junior
Deportivo Pasto
Attack vs Primera A average
+13%
-29%
Goals conceded vs average
+7%
+22%
Our expected goals here
2.03
0.80
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Junior to win✓
60%
1.67
1.84 ▲
Double chance
Junior or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
1.93
Draw no bet
Junior (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Junior -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
74%
1.36
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
87%
1.15
1.08
First team to score
Junior to score first✗
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Junior ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Junior / FT Junior✗
39%
2.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.31
–
Recent results
Junior – last 6
LWLDLW
29 Apr
@ Sporting Cristal
0–2
L
20 Apr
vs Llaneros
2–0
W
14 Apr
@ Cerro Porteno
0–1
L
9 Apr
vs Palmeiras
1–1
D
4 Apr
vs Deportivo Cali
1–2
L
25 Mar
vs Bucaramanga
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Deportivo Pasto – last 6
LWWDLW
24 Apr
vs Santa Fe
1–2
L
17 Apr
@ Jaguares
3–2
W
11 Apr
vs Deportes Tolima
1–0
W
1 Apr
@ Alianza Valledupar
0–0
D
30 Mar
vs Atletico Nacional
1–2
L
25 Mar
@ Fortaleza FC
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Junior and Deportivo Pasto.
What is the prediction for Junior vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our pick is Junior or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Junior vs Deportivo Pasto?
On our numbers Junior have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Deportivo Pasto 17%.
How many goals will there be in Junior vs Deportivo Pasto?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Junior vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our predicted score is Junior 1–0 Deportivo Pasto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Junior vs Deportivo Pasto?
Junior vs Deportivo Pasto (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 23:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Romelio Martinez.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
