Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 52% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente Medellin to win59% · @1.43
Double chanceIndependiente Medellin or draw82% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score52% · @2.05
GoalsOver 1.5 goals73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.39
Independiente Medellin vs Águilas Doradas: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Águilas Doradas travel to face Independiente Medellin on Sunday 3 May in the Primera A, with Estadio Atanasio Girardot the venue – the ball rolls at 21:30 WAT. In the table, Independiente Medellin are 6th, upper half, on 29 points after 18 matches; Águilas Doradas are 10th (upper half) with 25.
Current form
Independiente Medellin, last 5: WWWLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Cusco, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Águilas Doradas, last 5: LWLWD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Fortaleza FC, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Independiente Medellin, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Águilas Doradas.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independiente Medellin 1.7 xG, Águilas Doradas 0.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente Medellin 59%, draw 23%, Águilas Doradas 18%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente Medellin 1–1 Águilas Doradas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independiente Medellin59%fair 1.69 · @1.43
Draw23%fair 4.33 · @4.10
Águilas Doradas18%fair 5.62 · @7.75
2.59Expected goals
1.67Independiente Medellin xG
0.92Águilas Doradas xG
52%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–112%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Independiente Medellin 1.7 – 0.9 Águilas Doradas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Independiente Medellin
Águilas Doradas
Attack vs Primera A average
+16%
-7%
Goals conceded vs average
+6%
-9%
Our expected goals here
1.56
1.04
Our own ratings from every Primera A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente Medellin to win
59%
1.69
1.43
Double chance
Independiente Medellin or draw
82%
1.22
1.08
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
52%
1.93
2.05 ▲
Draw no bet
Independiente Medellin (draw no bet)
77%
1.30
–
Asian handicap
Águilas Doradas +1.5 (Asian handicap)
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
51%
1.97
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
72%
1.38
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
86%
1.16
1.11
First team to score
Independiente Medellin to score first
60%
1.68
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente Medellin / FT Independiente Medellin
34%
2.96
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.39
–
Recent results
Independiente Medellin – last 6
WWWLLD
1 May
vs Cusco
1–0
W
26 Apr
vs Fortaleza FC
1–0
W
23 Apr
vs Chico
2–0
W
17 Apr
@ Flamengo
1–4
L
12 Apr
vs Atletico Nacional
2–3
L
9 Apr
vs Estudiantes L.P.
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Águilas Doradas – last 6
LWLWDL
19 Apr
@ Fortaleza FC
0–2
L
7 Apr
vs Bucaramanga
2–1
W
1 Apr
@ Deportes Tolima
1–4
L
27 Mar
vs Alianza Valledupar
1–0
W
24 Mar
@ Jaguares
1–1
D
20 Mar
vs America de Cali
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente Medellin and Águilas Doradas.
What is the prediction for Independiente Medellin vs Águilas Doradas?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Independiente Medellin vs Águilas Doradas?
On our numbers Independiente Medellin have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Águilas Doradas 18%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente Medellin vs Águilas Doradas?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente Medellin vs Águilas Doradas?
Our predicted score is Independiente Medellin 1–1 Águilas Doradas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Independiente Medellin vs Águilas Doradas?
Independiente Medellin vs Águilas Doradas (Primera A) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
