Russia 65%Draw 23%Mali 12%Expected goals 1.78 – 0.62
77%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.30 · bookmaker 1.20
8/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Russia to win @ 1.71 – our chance 65% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultRussia to win65% · @1.71
Double chanceRussia or draw88% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @2.03
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.19
Russia vs Mali: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 27 March the Friendlies brings Russia against Mali. Kick-off: 16:00 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Russia 1.8 xG, Mali 0.6 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Russia 65%, draw 23%, Mali 12%.
Lower-risk option: Russia or draw (88%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.03.
Price worth noting: Russia to win @1.71 – the bookmaker implies 58%, our ratings say 65%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Russia 1–0 Mali. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Russia65%fair 1.55 · @1.71
Draw23%fair 4.26 · @3.52
Mali12%fair 8.48 · @4.95
2.41Expected goals
1.78Russia xG
0.62Mali xG
51%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
0–09%
2–19%
3–09%
From our goals model: Russia 1.8 – 0.6 Mali expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Russia to win
65%
1.55
1.71 ▲
Double chance
Russia or draw
88%
1.13
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
51%
1.96
2.03
Draw no bet
Russia (draw no bet)
85%
1.18
–
Asian handicap
Russia -0.5 (Asian handicap)
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
68%
1.47
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
57%
1.76
1.66
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
77%
1.30
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
89%
1.12
1.03
First team to score
Russia to score first
67%
1.48
–
Half-time result
Russia ahead at half-time
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Russia / FT Russia
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.19
–
Recent results
Russia
No recent results on record.
Mali
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Russia and Mali.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Russia vs Mali?
On our numbers Russia have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Mali 12%.
How many goals will there be in Russia vs Mali?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Russia vs Mali?
Our predicted score is Russia 1–0 Mali, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Russia vs Mali?
Russia vs Mali (Friendlies) kicks off on Friday 27 March 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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