Spain v Croatia Prediction & Expected Goals (29 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultSpain to win ✓69% · @1.18

Double chanceSpain or draw ✓89% · @1.05

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.95

GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.62

Spain vs Croatia: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Spain welcome Croatia to Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán for a UEFA Nations League fixture on Tuesday 29 September (19:45 WAT). In the table, Spain are 1st on 12 points after 4 matches; Croatia are 3rd with 3.

Current form

Spain, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over England, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Croatia, last 5: WLWWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Czechia, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Spain, collecting 2.7 points per game to 2.0 for Croatia.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Spain 2.8 xG, Croatia 1.2 xG – a total near 4.0. That is an open game on paper: 76% for three or more goals, 60% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Spain 69%, draw 20%, Croatia 11%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.95.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (60%, odds 1.95 – longer than our fair 1.67, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Spain 2–1 Croatia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Spain69%fair 1.46 · @1.18

Draw20%fair 4.97 · @6.50

Croatia11%fair 8.96 · @12.00

4.00Expected goals

2.81Spain xG

1.19Croatia xG

60%Both score

76%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–19%

3–18%

2–07%

3–07%

1–16%

4–16%

From our goals model: Spain 2.8 – 1.2 Croatia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Spain to win ✓	69%	1.46	1.18
Double chance	Spain or draw ✓	89%	1.13	1.05
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	60%	1.67	1.95 ▲
Draw no bet	Spain (draw no bet) ✓	86%	1.16	–
Asian handicap	Spain -1 (Asian handicap) ✓	64%	1.57	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	91%	1.10	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	76%	1.31	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Over 3.5 goals ✓	57%	1.77	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✗	63%	1.59	–
First team to score	Spain to score first	69%	1.45	–
Half-time result	Spain ahead at half-time ✓	54%	1.85	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Spain / FT Spain ✓	49%	2.06	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	11.62	–

Spain – last 6

WDWWWW

26 Sep	@ England	3–2	W
19 Jul	vs Argentina	0–0	D
14 Jul	@ France	2–0	W
10 Jul	vs Belgium	2–1	W
6 Jul	@ Portugal	1–0	W
2 Jul	vs Austria	3–0	W

1.8Scored / game

0.5Conceded / game

33%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Croatia – last 6

WLWWLW

26 Sep	@ Czechia	2–1	W
3 Jul	@ Portugal	1–2	L
27 Jun	vs Ghana	2–1	W
24 Jun	@ Panama	1–0	W
17 Jun	@ England	2–4	L
7 Jun	vs Slovenia	2–1	W

1.7Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

83%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Spain	4	4	0	+7	12
2	England	4	3	1	+11	9
3	Croatia	4	1	3	-10	3
4	Czechia	4	0	4	-8	0

Team

Pts

+11

-10

-8

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Spain vs Croatia?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.

Who will win Spain vs Croatia?

On our numbers Spain have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Croatia 11%.

How many goals will there be in Spain vs Croatia?

We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Spain vs Croatia?

Our predicted score is Spain 2–1 Croatia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.

When is Spain vs Croatia?

Spain vs Croatia (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Spain v Croatia: numbers & prediction