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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Bulgaria v Estonia: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe · Hristo Botev Stadium

Bulgaria

LDLWW
0–0
FT

Estonia

DWL
Bulgaria 64%Draw 21%Estonia 14% Expected goals 1.80 – 0.70
64%
Betarazi pick

Bulgaria to win

Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.65 · Lost ✗

6/10Rating
1.65Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 51% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultBulgaria to win ✗64% · @1.65
Double chanceBulgaria or draw ✓86% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.76

Bulgaria vs Estonia: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Estonia travel to face Bulgaria on Tuesday 29 September in the UEFA Nations League, with Hristo Botev Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 19:45 WAT. In the table, Bulgaria are 3rd on 4 points after 4 matches; Estonia are 2nd with 6. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Bulgaria, last 5: LDLWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Luxembourg, at home. The attack is flying at 2.8 goals per game.

Estonia, last 3: DWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Iceland, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Bulgaria 1.8 xG, Estonia 0.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 51%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Bulgaria 64%, draw 21%, Estonia 14%.
  • Lower-risk option: Bulgaria or draw (86%) at 1.14.
  • GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.15.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 51%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Bulgaria to win (64%, odds 1.65 – longer than our fair 1.55, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bulgaria 1–0 Estonia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Bulgaria64%fair 1.55 · @1.65
Draw21%fair 4.68 · @3.40
Estonia14%fair 7.03 · @5.00
2.50Expected goals
1.80Bulgaria xG
0.70Estonia xG
51%Both score
46%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–015%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%

From our goals model: Bulgaria 1.8 – 0.7 Estonia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultBulgaria to win ✗64%1.551.65 ▲
Double chanceBulgaria or draw ✓86%1.171.14
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗51%1.962.15 ▲
Draw no betBulgaria (draw no bet)82%1.22–
Asian handicapBulgaria -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗64%1.56–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗71%1.40–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓54%1.84–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76%1.32–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓89%1.12–
First team to scoreBulgaria to score first ✗66%1.51–
Half-time resultBulgaria ahead at half-time ✗45%2.23–
Half-time / full-timeHT Bulgaria / FT Bulgaria ✗40%2.48–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%10.76–

Recent results

Bulgaria – last 5

LDLWW
26 Sepvs Luxembourg1–2L
5 Jun@ Moldova2–2D
1 Junvs Montenegro0–1L
30 Mar@ Indonesia1–0W
27 Mar@ Solomon Islands10–2W
2.8Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5

Estonia – last 3

DWL
26 Sep@ Iceland1–1D
6 Junvs Faroe Islands1–0W
30 Mar@ Rwanda0–2L
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Bulgaria and Estonia.

Bulgaria vs Estonia head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Iceland4220+68
2Estonia4130+16
3Bulgaria4112-24
4Luxembourg4103-53

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
FT Finland0 Belarus0 162%1.57X24%3.50214%5.50 2.9–1.6xG GGBoth teams to score 61%@2.15 ✗
FT Moldova1 Faroe Islands1 136%2.70X25%2.88240%2.62 1.0–1.0xG GGBoth teams to score 53%@2.05 ✓
FT Spain4 Croatia1 169%1.18X20%6.50211%12.00 2.8–1.2xG GGBoth teams to score 60%@1.95 ✓
FT Czechia0 England2 110%8.00X19%4.75272%1.33 1.1–2.9xG 2England to win 72%@1.33 ✓
FT San Marino0 Albania3 18%41.00X12%15.00281%1.04 1.1–3.4xG GGBoth teams to score 52%@4.33 ✗
FT Slovakia2 Kazakhstan1 174%1.25X18%5.0028%11.00 1.7–0.3xG 1Slovakia to win 74%@1.25 ✓
FT Luxembourg0 Iceland3 138%3.30X23%3.10239%2.10 1.2–1.3xG GGBoth teams to score 54%@1.80 ✗
FT Scotland0 Switzerland3 117%4.00X21%3.30262%1.83 0.4–1.1xG X2Switzerland or draw 83%@1.22 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bulgaria vs Estonia?

Our pick is Bulgaria to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.

Who will win Bulgaria vs Estonia?

On our numbers Bulgaria have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Estonia 14%.

How many goals will there be in Bulgaria vs Estonia?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Bulgaria vs Estonia?

Our predicted score is Bulgaria 1–0 Estonia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Bulgaria vs Estonia?

Bulgaria vs Estonia (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Hristo Botev Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.