Luxembourg v Iceland Prediction & Expected Goals (29 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultIceland to win ✓39% · @2.10

Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.33

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.80

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.43

Luxembourg vs Iceland: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

19:45 WAT, Tuesday 29 September: Luxembourg v Iceland in the UEFA Nations League, played at Stade de Luxembourg. In the table, Luxembourg are 4th on 3 points after 4 matches; Iceland are 1st with 8.

Current form

Luxembourg, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Bulgaria, away. Goals for and against: 1.6 scored, 0.4 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Iceland, last 5: DLLDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Estonia, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.4 goals a game.

Momentum favours Luxembourg, collecting 2.4 points per game to 0.4 for Iceland.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Luxembourg 1.2 xG, Iceland 1.3 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 54%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Luxembourg 38%, draw 23%, Iceland 39%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Luxembourg to win @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 38%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (54%, odds 1.80). Most likely score in line with that pick: Luxembourg 1–1 Iceland. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Luxembourg38%fair 2.62 · @3.30

Draw23%fair 4.33 · @3.10

Iceland39%fair 2.58 · @2.10

2.50Expected goals

1.25Luxembourg xG

1.25Iceland xG

54%Both score

46%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%

0–110%

1–010%

0–08%

1–28%

2–18%

From our goals model: Luxembourg 1.2 – 1.3 Iceland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Iceland to win ✓	39%	2.58	2.10
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	77%	1.30	1.33
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	54%	1.84	1.80
Draw no bet	Iceland (draw no bet) ✓	50%	1.99	–
Asian handicap	Luxembourg +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	63%	1.58	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	71%	1.40	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	54%	1.84	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	76%	1.32	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	89%	1.12	–
First team to score	Iceland to score first ✓	46%	2.17	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	44%	2.27	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Iceland / FT Iceland ✓	21%	4.76	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	8%	12.43	–

Luxembourg – last 5

WWLWW

26 Sep	@ Bulgaria	2–1	W
6 Jun	@ Albania	1–0	W
3 Jun	vs Italy	0–1	L
31 Mar	vs Malta	3–0	W
26 Mar	@ Malta	2–0	W

1.6Scored / game

0.4Conceded / game

20%Both scored

40%Over 2.5

Iceland – last 5

DLLDL

26 Sep	vs Estonia	1–1	D
10 Jun	@ Argentina	0–3	L
31 May	@ Japan	0–1	L
31 Mar	@ Haiti	1–1	D
26 Feb	@ Mexico	0–4	L

0.4Scored / game

2.0Conceded / game

40%Both scored

40%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Iceland	4	2	2	0	+6	8
2	Estonia	4	1	3	0	+1	6
3	Bulgaria	4	1	1	2	-2	4
4	Luxembourg	4	1	0	3	-5	3

Team

Pts

-2

-5

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Luxembourg vs Iceland?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.

Who will win Luxembourg vs Iceland?

On our numbers Luxembourg have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Iceland 39%.

How many goals will there be in Luxembourg vs Iceland?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Luxembourg vs Iceland?

Our predicted score is Luxembourg 1–1 Iceland, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Luxembourg vs Iceland?

Luxembourg vs Iceland (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade de Luxembourg.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Luxembourg v Iceland: numbers & prediction