Finland v Belarus Prediction & Expected Goals (29 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultFinland to win ✗62% · @1.57

Double chanceFinland or draw ✓86% · @1.14

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @2.15

GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.21

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 13.35

Finland vs Belarus: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

17:00 WAT, Tuesday 29 September: Finland v Belarus in the UEFA Nations League, played at Helsinki Olympic Stadium. In the table, Finland are 3rd on 7 points after 4 matches; Belarus are 2nd with 7. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Finland, last 4: WLLW Their latest outing: 7–0 win over San Marino, away. The attack is flying at 2.5 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.

Belarus, last 5: LDWWW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Albania, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Belarus, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.5 for Finland.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Finland 2.9 xG, Belarus 1.6 xG – a total near 4.5. That is an open game on paper: 83% for three or more goals, 61% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Finland 62%, draw 24%, Belarus 14%.
Lower-risk option: Finland or draw (86%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 2.15.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (61%, odds 2.15 – longer than our fair 1.63, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Finland 2–1 Belarus. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Finland62%fair 1.62 · @1.57

Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.50

Belarus14%fair 7.14 · @5.50

4.50Expected goals

2.94Finland xG

1.56Belarus xG

61%Both score

83%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–17%

3–17%

2–26%

3–26%

4–15%

1–15%

From our goals model: Finland 2.9 – 1.6 Belarus expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Finland to win ✗	62%	1.62	1.57
Double chance	Finland or draw ✓	86%	1.16	1.14
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	61%	1.63	2.15 ▲
Draw no bet	Finland (draw no bet)	81%	1.23	–
Asian handicap	Finland -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	66%	1.52	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	94%	1.07	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	83%	1.21	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Over 3.5 goals ✗	66%	1.52	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	53%	1.88	–
First team to score	Finland to score first ✗	65%	1.55	–
Half-time result	Finland ahead at half-time ✗	51%	1.96	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Finland / FT Finland ✗	45%	2.25	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	7%	13.35	–

Finland – last 4

WLLW

26 Sep	@ San Marino	7–0	W
5 Jun	@ Hungary	1–2	L
31 May	@ Germany	0–4	L
27 Mar	@ New Zealand	2–0	W

2.5Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

25%Both scored

75%Over 2.5

Belarus – last 5

LDWWW

26 Sep	@ Albania	0–2	L
9 Jun	vs Burkina Faso	2–2	D
5 Jun	vs Syria	4–1	W
29 Mar	@ Armenia	2–1	W
26 Mar	@ Cyprus	1–0	W

1.8Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

60%Both scored

60%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Albania	4	3	0	1	+5	9
2	Belarus	4	2	1	1	+3	7
3	Finland	4	2	1	1	+7	7
4	San Marino	4	0	0	4	-15	0

Team

Pts

-15

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Finland vs Belarus?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.15.

Who will win Finland vs Belarus?

On our numbers Finland have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Belarus 14%.

How many goals will there be in Finland vs Belarus?

We expect about 4.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Finland vs Belarus?

Our predicted score is Finland 2–1 Belarus, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.5 goals in total.

When is Finland vs Belarus?

Finland vs Belarus (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Helsinki Olympic Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Finland v Belarus: numbers & prediction