Wednesday 11 November 2026 16 live now 66% correct · last 30 days JackpotsNewsTelegram18+
BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Azerbaijan v Lithuania: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe · Bakcell Arena

Azerbaijan

DDWWL
1–0
FT

Lithuania

WDWLW
Azerbaijan 39%Draw 25%Lithuania 37% Expected goals 0.77 – 0.73
54%
Betarazi pick

Not both teams to score

Fair pick · fair odds 1.85 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓

4/10Rating
1.62Odds
2

Value bet: Lithuania to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultAzerbaijan to win ✓39% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓17% · fair 5.85

Azerbaijan vs Lithuania: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Azerbaijan welcome Lithuania to Bakcell Arena for a UEFA Nations League fixture on Sunday 4 October (14:00 WAT). In the table, Azerbaijan are 1st on 5 points after 3 matches; Lithuania are 2nd with 4. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Azerbaijan, last 5: DDWWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Liechtenstein, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.

Lithuania, last 5: WDWLW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Andorra, at home. Goals for and against: 1.6 scored, 0.6 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Head to head

When they last met (27 Sep 2026) it ended Lithuania 1–1 Azerbaijan.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Azerbaijan 0.8 xG, Lithuania 0.7 xG – a total near 1.5. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 81%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Azerbaijan 39%, draw 25%, Lithuania 37%.
  • GG/NG: NG (54%) at 1.62.
  • Price worth noting: Lithuania to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 37%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (54%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: Azerbaijan 0–0 Lithuania. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Azerbaijan39%fair 2.59 · @2.30
Draw25%fair 4.08 · @2.90
Lithuania37%fair 2.72 · @3.10
1.50Expected goals
0.77Azerbaijan xG
0.73Lithuania xG
46%Both score
19%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–022%
1–017%
0–116%
1–113%
2–07%
0–26%

From our goals model: Azerbaijan 0.8 – 0.7 Lithuania expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultAzerbaijan to win ✓39%2.592.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75%1.331.36
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✓54%1.851.62
Draw no betAzerbaijan (draw no bet) ✓51%1.95–
Asian handicapLithuania +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗67%1.48–
Over/under 1.5 goalsUnder 1.5 goals ✓56%1.79–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓81%1.24–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓93%1.07–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓98%1.02–
First team to scoreAzerbaijan to score first ✓40%2.52–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗57%1.74–
Half-time / full-timeHT Draw / FT Draw ✗29%3.40–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓17%5.85–

Recent results

Azerbaijan – last 6

DDWWLW
1 Octvs Liechtenstein0–0D
27 Sep@ Lithuania1–1D
23 Sepvs Tajikistan1–0W
9 Junvs San Marino2–1W
5 Junvs Malta0–2L
27 Marvs St. Lucia6–1W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Lithuania – last 5

WDWLW
30 Sepvs Andorra3–0W
27 Sepvs Azerbaijan1–1D
24 Sep@ Liechtenstein2–0W
29 Marvs Georgia0–2L
26 Mar@ Moldova2–0W
1.6Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5

Head to head

27 Sep 2026Lithuania v Azerbaijan1–1
Azerbaijan vs Lithuania head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Azerbaijan3120+15
2Lithuania3111+14
3Liechtenstein2011-21

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
FT Kosovo1 Austria1 129%3.20X22%3.30249%2.05 1.2–1.6xG GGBoth teams to score 61%@1.67 ✓
FT Malta1 Andorra0 159%1.67X22%3.20219%5.50 1.4–0.6xG 1Malta to win 59%@1.67 ✓
FT Greece0 Germany0 116%3.70X23%3.60260%1.75 0.6–1.5xG X2Germany or draw 84%@1.25 ✓
FT Netherlands2 Serbia1 177%1.15X14%7.0029%13.00 2.3–0.6xG GGBoth teams to score 52%@2.00 ✓
FT Portugal2 Norway1 166%1.57X21%4.20213%4.40 2.4–1.1xG 1XPortugal or draw 87%@1.20 ✓
FT Wales0 Denmark1 116%3.60X26%3.40258%1.91 1.1–2.1xG X2Denmark or draw 84%@1.25 ✓
FT Rep. Of Ireland1 Israel1 153%2.00X23%3.20225%3.40 1.6–0.9xG 1Rep. Of Ireland to win 53%@2.00 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?

Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.

Who will win Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?

On our numbers Azerbaijan have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Lithuania 37%.

How many goals will there be in Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?

We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?

Our predicted score is Azerbaijan 0–0 Lithuania, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.

When is Azerbaijan vs Lithuania?

Azerbaijan vs Lithuania (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Bakcell Arena.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.