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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Greece v Germany: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe · Toumba Stadium

Greece

DWWLD
0–0
FT

Germany

WLDDL
Greece 16%Draw 23%Germany 60% Expected goals 0.63 – 1.54
84%
Betarazi pick

Germany or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓

10/10Rating
1.25Odds

Picks by market

ResultGermany to win ✗60% · @1.75
Double chanceGermany or draw ✓84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.60
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.71

Greece vs Germany: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Sunday 4 October the UEFA Nations League brings Greece against Germany at Toumba Stadium. Kick-off: 19:45 WAT. In the table, Greece are 2nd on 8 points after 4 matches; Germany are 3rd with 5. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Greece, last 5: DWWLD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Netherlands, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Germany, last 5: WLDDL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Serbia, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Head to head

When they last met (27 Sep 2026) it ended Germany 0–1 Greece.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Greece 0.6 xG, Germany 1.5 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 63%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Greece 16%, draw 23%, Germany 60%.
  • Lower-risk option: Germany or draw (84%) at 1.25.
  • GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.60.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Germany or draw (84%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.20, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Greece 0–1 Germany. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Greece16%fair 6.11 · @3.70
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.60
Germany60%fair 1.66 · @1.75
2.17Expected goals
0.63Greece xG
1.54Germany xG
52%Both score
37%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–118%
0–213%
0–011%
1–111%
1–29%
1–07%

From our goals model: Greece 0.6 – 1.5 Germany expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultGermany to win ✗60%1.661.75 ▲
Double chanceGermany or draw ✓84%1.201.25
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗52%1.911.60
Draw no betGermany (draw no bet)79%1.27–
Asian handicapGreece +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✓68%1.46–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗64%1.57–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓63%1.59–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83%1.21–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓93%1.07–
First team to scoreGermany to score first ✗63%1.59–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓46%2.17–
Half-time / full-timeHT Germany / FT Germany ✗36%2.78–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9%11.71–

Recent results

Greece – last 6

DWWLDD
1 Octvs Netherlands2–2D
27 Sep@ Germany1–0W
24 Sep@ Serbia2–1W
7 Junvs Italy0–1L
4 Jun@ Sweden2–2D
31 Mar@ Hungary0–0D
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Germany – last 6

WLDDLW
1 Octvs Serbia2–0W
27 Sepvs Greece0–1L
24 Sep@ Netherlands1–1D
29 Junvs Paraguay1–1D
25 Jun@ Ecuador1–2L
20 Junvs Ivory Coast2–1W
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

27 Sep 2026Germany v Greece0–1
Greece vs Germany head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Netherlands4220+28
2Greece4220+28
3Germany4121+15
4Serbia4004-50

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
FT Azerbaijan1 Lithuania0 139%2.30X25%2.90237%3.10 0.8–0.7xG NGNot both teams to score 54%@1.62 ✓
FT Kosovo1 Austria1 129%3.20X22%3.30249%2.05 1.2–1.6xG GGBoth teams to score 61%@1.67 ✓
FT Malta1 Andorra0 159%1.67X22%3.20219%5.50 1.4–0.6xG 1Malta to win 59%@1.67 ✓
FT Netherlands2 Serbia1 177%1.15X14%7.0029%13.00 2.3–0.6xG GGBoth teams to score 52%@2.00 ✓
FT Portugal2 Norway1 166%1.57X21%4.20213%4.40 2.4–1.1xG 1XPortugal or draw 87%@1.20 ✓
FT Wales0 Denmark1 116%3.60X26%3.40258%1.91 1.1–2.1xG X2Denmark or draw 84%@1.25 ✓
FT Rep. Of Ireland1 Israel1 153%2.00X23%3.20225%3.40 1.6–0.9xG 1Rep. Of Ireland to win 53%@2.00 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Greece vs Germany?

Our pick is Germany or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Greece vs Germany?

On our numbers Greece have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Germany 60%.

How many goals will there be in Greece vs Germany?

We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Greece vs Germany?

Our predicted score is Greece 0–1 Germany, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.

When is Greece vs Germany?

Greece vs Germany (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Toumba Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.