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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Netherlands v Serbia: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe · Philips Stadion

Netherlands

DWDDW
2–1
FT

Serbia

LLLLL
Netherlands 77%Draw 14%Serbia 9% Expected goals 2.27 – 0.56
52%
Betarazi pick

Both teams to score

Fair pick · fair odds 1.93 · bookmaker 2.00 · Won ✓

3/10Rating
2.00Odds

Picks by market

ResultNetherlands to win ✓77% · @1.15
Double chanceNetherlands or draw ✓91% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 11.70

Netherlands vs Serbia: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Netherlands welcome Serbia to Philips Stadion for a UEFA Nations League fixture on Sunday 4 October (19:45 WAT). In the table, Netherlands are 1st on 8 points after 4 matches; Serbia are 4th with 0.

Current form

Netherlands, last 5: DWDDW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Greece, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.

Serbia, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Germany, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Momentum favours Netherlands, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.5 for Serbia.

Head to head

When they last met (27 Sep 2026) it ended Serbia 1–2 Netherlands.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Netherlands 2.3 xG, Serbia 0.6 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Netherlands 77%, draw 14%, Serbia 9%.
  • GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.00.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (52%, odds 2.00 – longer than our fair 1.93, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Netherlands 2–1 Serbia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Netherlands77%fair 1.30 · @1.15
Draw14%fair 7.07 · @7.00
Serbia9%fair 11.52 · @13.00
2.83Expected goals
2.27Netherlands xG
0.56Serbia xG
52%Both score
54%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–015%
1–013%
3–011%
2–19%
1–18%
4–06%

From our goals model: Netherlands 2.3 – 0.6 Serbia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultNetherlands to win ✓77%1.301.15
Double chanceNetherlands or draw ✓91%1.101.03
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓52%1.932.00
Draw no betNetherlands (draw no bet) ✓90%1.11–
Asian handicapNetherlands -1 (Asian handicap)69%1.46–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77%1.29–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓54%1.86–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓69%1.46–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓84%1.19–
First team to scoreNetherlands to score first75%1.33–
Half-time resultNetherlands ahead at half-time ✗55%1.83–
Half-time / full-timeHT Netherlands / FT Netherlands ✗51%1.95–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9%11.70–

Recent results

Netherlands – last 6

DWDDWW
1 Oct@ Greece2–2D
27 Sep@ Serbia2–1W
24 Sepvs Germany1–1D
30 Junvs Morocco1–1D
26 Jun@ Tunisia3–1W
20 Junvs Sweden5–1W
2.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Serbia – last 6

LLLLLW
1 Oct@ Germany0–2L
27 Sepvs Netherlands1–2L
24 Sepvs Greece1–2L
5 Jun@ Mexico1–5L
31 May@ Cape Verde Islands0–3L
31 Marvs Saudi Arabia2–1W
0.8Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Head to head

27 Sep 2026Serbia v Netherlands1–2
Netherlands vs Serbia head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Netherlands4220+28
2Greece4220+28
3Germany4121+15
4Serbia4004-50

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
FT Azerbaijan1 Lithuania0 139%2.30X25%2.90237%3.10 0.8–0.7xG NGNot both teams to score 54%@1.62 ✓
FT Kosovo1 Austria1 129%3.20X22%3.30249%2.05 1.2–1.6xG GGBoth teams to score 61%@1.67 ✓
FT Malta1 Andorra0 159%1.67X22%3.20219%5.50 1.4–0.6xG 1Malta to win 59%@1.67 ✓
FT Greece0 Germany0 116%3.70X23%3.60260%1.75 0.6–1.5xG X2Germany or draw 84%@1.25 ✓
FT Portugal2 Norway1 166%1.57X21%4.20213%4.40 2.4–1.1xG 1XPortugal or draw 87%@1.20 ✓
FT Wales0 Denmark1 116%3.60X26%3.40258%1.91 1.1–2.1xG X2Denmark or draw 84%@1.25 ✓
FT Rep. Of Ireland1 Israel1 153%2.00X23%3.20225%3.40 1.6–0.9xG 1Rep. Of Ireland to win 53%@2.00 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Netherlands vs Serbia?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.

Who will win Netherlands vs Serbia?

On our numbers Netherlands have a 77% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Serbia 9%.

How many goals will there be in Netherlands vs Serbia?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Netherlands vs Serbia?

Our predicted score is Netherlands 2–1 Serbia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is Netherlands vs Serbia?

Netherlands vs Serbia (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Philips Stadion.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.