Wales 16%Draw 26%Denmark 58%Expected goals 1.07 – 2.10
84%
Betarazi pick
Denmark or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Denmark to win @ 1.91 – our chance 58% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultDenmark to win ✓58% · @1.91
Double chanceDenmark or draw ✓84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗82% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.09
Wales vs Denmark: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Wales welcome Denmark to Cardiff City Stadium for a UEFA Nations League fixture on Sunday 4 October (19:45 WAT). In the table, Wales are 3rd on 3 points after 4 matches; Denmark are 2nd with 6. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Wales, last 5: WLLLD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Norway, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Denmark, last 5: LWLDW Their latest outing: 2–4 defeat to Portugal, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Denmark, collecting 1.4 points per game to 0.8 for Wales.
Head to head
When they last met (27 Sep 2026) it ended Denmark 2–0 Wales.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Wales 1.1 xG, Denmark 2.1 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 61% and GG at 62%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Wales 16%, draw 26%, Denmark 58%.
Lower-risk option: Denmark or draw (84%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Denmark to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Denmark or draw (84%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.19, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Wales 1–2 Denmark. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Wales16%fair 6.32 · @3.60
Draw26%fair 3.87 · @3.40
Denmark58%fair 1.71 · @1.91
3.17Expected goals
1.07Wales xG
2.10Denmark xG
62%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–210%
1–19%
0–29%
0–19%
1–37%
0–36%
From our goals model: Wales 1.1 – 2.1 Denmark expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Denmark or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Wales vs Denmark?
On our numbers Wales have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Denmark 58%.
How many goals will there be in Wales vs Denmark?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Wales vs Denmark?
Our predicted score is Wales 1–2 Denmark, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Wales vs Denmark?
Wales vs Denmark (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Cardiff City Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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