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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Norway v Wales: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe

Norway

LLLWD
Sat 14 Nov 2026

Wales

LWLLL
Norway 63%Draw 20%Wales 17% Expected goals 1.72 – 1.00
63%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.67

6/10Rating
1.67Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.91 – our chance 58% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk.

Picks by market

ResultNorway to win63% · @1.22
Double chanceNorway or draw83% · @1.07
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score58% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals80% · @1.12
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.26

Norway vs Wales: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Saturday 14 November the UEFA Nations League brings Norway against Wales. Kick-off: 18:00 WAT. In the table, Norway are 4th on 3 points after 4 matches; Wales are 3rd with 3. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Norway, last 5: LLLWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Portugal, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.

Wales, last 5: LWLLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Denmark, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Momentum favours Norway, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.7 for Wales.

Head to head

When they last met (1 Oct 2026) it ended Wales 2–1 Norway.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Norway 1.7 xG, Wales 1.0 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 58%, GG 58%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Norway 63%, draw 20%, Wales 17%.
  • GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.91.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 58%.

Betarazi verdict

Our call: Under 3.5 goals (63%, odds 1.67 – longer than our fair 1.58, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Norway 1–1 Wales. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Norway63%fair 1.60 · @1.22
Draw20%fair 5.02 · @7.00
Wales17%fair 5.74 · @10.00
2.72Expected goals
1.72Norway xG
1.00Wales xG
58%Both score
58%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–111%
1–011%
2–110%
2–010%
0–17%
0–07%

From our goals model: Norway 1.7 – 1.0 Wales expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

NorwayWales
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average+11%-31%
Goals conceded vs average+23%-7%
Our expected goals here1.271.05

Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultNorway to win63%1.601.22
Double chanceNorway or draw83%1.211.07
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score58%1.721.91 ▲
Draw no betNorway (draw no bet)78%1.28–
Asian handicapWales +1 (Asian handicap)60%1.65–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals80%1.251.12
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals58%1.721.44
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals63%1.581.67 ▲
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals80%1.261.28
First team to scoreNorway to score first59%1.69–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time41%2.43–
Half-time / full-timeHT Norway / FT Norway33%3.00–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110%10.26–

Recent results

Norway – last 6

LLLWDW
4 Oct@ Portugal1–2L
1 Oct@ Wales1–2L
27 Sepvs Portugal1–2L
24 Sepvs Denmark3–2W
11 Julvs England1–1D
5 Jul@ Brazil2–1W
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Wales – last 6

LWLLLD
4 Octvs Denmark0–1L
1 Octvs Norway2–1W
27 Sep@ Denmark0–2L
24 Sep@ Portugal0–1L
6 Jun@ Romania1–2L
2 Junvs Ghana1–1D
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

1 Oct 2026Wales v Norway2–1
Norway vs Wales head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Portugal4400+512
2Denmark420206
3Wales4103-33
4Norway4103-23

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
Kosovo Israel 152%1.85X28%3.40221%4.20 1.3–0.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.33
Georgia Hungary 127%3.30X32%3.00241%2.30 0.6–0.9xG X2Hungary or draw 73%@1.36
Portugal Denmark 159%1.48X21%4.75220%5.50 2.1–1.3xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 64%@1.48
Northern Ireland Ukraine 147%2.30X28%2.90225%3.00 1.2–0.7xG 1XNorthern Ireland or draw 75%@1.33
Austria Rep. Of Ireland 155%1.57X24%4.00222%5.50 1.8–1.2xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.25
Romania Poland 118%3.90X22%3.50260%1.90 1.0–2.2xG X2Poland or draw 82%@1.25
Sweden Bosnia & Herzegovina 153%1.50X25%4.20222%6.00 1.4–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 69%@1.50

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Norway vs Wales?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.

Who will win Norway vs Wales?

On our numbers Norway have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Wales 17%.

How many goals will there be in Norway vs Wales?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Norway vs Wales?

Our predicted score is Norway 1–1 Wales, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.

When is Norway vs Wales?

Norway vs Wales (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.