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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Northern Ireland v Ukraine: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe

Northern Ireland

DWDWL
Sat 14 Nov 2026

Ukraine

LLDWW
Northern Ireland 47%Draw 28%Ukraine 25% Expected goals 1.20 – 0.69
75%
Betarazi pick

Northern Ireland or draw

Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.33

8/10Rating
1.33Odds
1

Value bet: Northern Ireland to win @ 2.30 – our chance 47% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk.

Picks by market

ResultNorthern Ireland to win47% · @2.30
Double chanceNorthern Ireland or draw75% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score51% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals83% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–018% · fair 5.49

Northern Ireland vs Ukraine: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Northern Ireland welcome Ukraine for a UEFA Nations League fixture on Saturday 14 November (20:45 WAT). In the table, Northern Ireland are 1st on 8 points after 4 matches; Ukraine are 3rd with 4.

Current form

Northern Ireland, last 5: DWDWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Georgia, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.

Ukraine, last 5: LLDWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Hungary, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Head to head

When they last met (2 Oct 2026) it ended Ukraine 0–3 Northern Ireland.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Northern Ireland 1.2 xG, Ukraine 0.7 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 66%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Northern Ireland 47%, draw 28%, Ukraine 25%.
  • Lower-risk option: Northern Ireland or draw (75%) at 1.33.
  • GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.73.
  • Price worth noting: Northern Ireland to win @2.30 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 47%.

Betarazi verdict

The Betarazi pick is Northern Ireland or draw (75%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Northern Ireland 1–0 Ukraine. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Northern Ireland47%fair 2.15 · @2.30
Draw28%fair 3.53 · @2.90
Ukraine25%fair 4.00 · @3.00
1.88Expected goals
1.20Northern Ireland xG
0.69Ukraine xG
49%Both score
34%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–018%
0–015%
1–112%
2–011%
0–110%
2–17%

From our goals model: Northern Ireland 1.2 – 0.7 Ukraine expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

Northern IrelandUkraine
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average-1%-17%
Goals conceded vs average-38%+11%
Our expected goals here1.350.64

Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultNorthern Ireland to win47%2.152.30 ▲
Double chanceNorthern Ireland or draw75%1.331.33
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score51%1.961.73
Draw no betNorthern Ireland (draw no bet)65%1.54–
Asian handicapUkraine +1 (Asian handicap)71%1.42–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals60%1.661.44
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals66%1.521.53
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals83%1.201.18
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals94%1.071.05
First team to scoreNorthern Ireland to score first54%1.85–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time51%1.96–
Half-time / full-timeHT Northern Ireland / FT Northern Ireland28%3.60–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–018%5.49–

Recent results

Northern Ireland – last 6

DWDWLW
5 Octvs Georgia0–0D
2 Oct@ Ukraine3–0W
28 Sepvs Hungary0–0D
25 Sep@ Georgia1–0W
8 Jun@ France1–3L
4 Junvs Guinea1–0W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Ukraine – last 6

LLDWWW
5 Octvs Hungary1–2L
2 Octvs Northern Ireland0–3L
28 Sep@ Georgia0–0D
25 Sep@ Hungary1–0W
31 May@ Poland2–0W
31 Marvs Albania1–0W
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

2 Oct 2026Ukraine v Northern Ireland0–3
Northern Ireland vs Ukraine head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Northern Ireland4220+48
2Hungary4211+17
3Ukraine4112-34
4Georgia4022-22

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
Kosovo Israel 152%1.85X28%3.40221%4.20 1.3–0.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.33
Norway Wales 163%1.22X20%7.00217%10.00 1.7–1.0xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 63%@1.67
Georgia Hungary 127%3.30X32%3.00241%2.30 0.6–0.9xG X2Hungary or draw 73%@1.36
Portugal Denmark 159%1.48X21%4.75220%5.50 2.1–1.3xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 64%@1.48
Austria Rep. Of Ireland 155%1.57X24%4.00222%5.50 1.8–1.2xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.25
Romania Poland 118%3.90X22%3.50260%1.90 1.0–2.2xG X2Poland or draw 82%@1.25
Sweden Bosnia & Herzegovina 153%1.50X25%4.20222%6.00 1.4–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 69%@1.50

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?

Our pick is Northern Ireland or draw with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.

Who will win Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?

On our numbers Northern Ireland have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Ukraine 25%.

How many goals will there be in Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?

We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?

Our predicted score is Northern Ireland 1–0 Ukraine, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.

When is Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?

Northern Ireland vs Ukraine (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.