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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Romania v Poland: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe

Romania

LLLLW
Sat 14 Nov 2026

Poland

LWLDD
Romania 18%Draw 22%Poland 60% Expected goals 1.04 – 2.21
82%
Betarazi pick

Poland or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.25

9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2

Value bet: Poland to win @ 1.90 – our chance 60% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk.

Picks by market

ResultPoland to win60% · @1.90
Double chancePoland or draw82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score59% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals80% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210% · fair 10.16

Romania vs Poland: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Romania welcome Poland for a UEFA Nations League fixture on Saturday 14 November (20:45 WAT). In the table, Romania are 4th on 0 points after 4 matches; Poland are 3rd with 4.

Current form

Romania, last 5: LLLLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Sweden, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.5 conceded per game.

Poland, last 5: LWLDD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Bosnia & Herzegovina, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Head to head

When they last met (2 Oct 2026) it ended Poland 6–0 Romania.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Romania 1.0 xG, Poland 2.2 xG – a total near 3.3. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 58% and GG at 59%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Romania 18%, draw 22%, Poland 60%.
  • Lower-risk option: Poland or draw (82%) at 1.25.
  • GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.67.
  • Price worth noting: Poland to win @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 60%.

Betarazi verdict

We are going with Poland or draw (82%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Romania 1–2 Poland. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Romania18%fair 5.42 · @3.90
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.50
Poland60%fair 1.67 · @1.90
3.25Expected goals
1.04Romania xG
2.21Poland xG
59%Both score
58%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–210%
0–29%
1–19%
0–19%
1–37%
0–37%

From our goals model: Romania 1.0 – 2.2 Poland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

RomaniaPoland
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average-11%+20%
Goals conceded vs average+70%-9%
Our expected goals here1.002.51

Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPoland to win60%1.671.90 ▲
Double chancePoland or draw82%1.231.25
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score59%1.701.67
Draw no betPoland (draw no bet)76%1.31–
Asian handicapPoland -0.5 (Asian handicap)64%1.57–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals80%1.251.22
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals58%1.731.80
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals63%1.601.40
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals80%1.251.14
First team to scorePoland to score first65%1.53–
Half-time resultPoland ahead at half-time47%2.12–
Half-time / full-timeHT Poland / FT Poland42%2.41–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210%10.16–

Recent results

Romania – last 6

LLLLWD
5 Octvs Sweden0–1L
2 Oct@ Poland0–6L
28 Sepvs Bosnia & Herzegovina2–4L
25 Sep@ Sweden1–2L
6 Junvs Wales2–1W
2 Jun@ Georgia1–1D
1.0Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Poland – last 6

LWLDDL
5 Oct@ Bosnia & Herzegovina0–1L
2 Octvs Romania6–0W
28 Sep@ Sweden1–3L
25 Sepvs Bosnia & Herzegovina0–0D
3 Junvs Nigeria2–2D
31 Mayvs Ukraine0–2L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

2 Oct 2026Poland v Romania6–0
Romania vs Poland head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Sweden4310+410
2Bosnia & Herzegovina4220+38
3Poland4112+34
4Romania4004-100

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
Kosovo Israel 152%1.85X28%3.40221%4.20 1.3–0.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.33
Norway Wales 163%1.22X20%7.00217%10.00 1.7–1.0xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 63%@1.67
Georgia Hungary 127%3.30X32%3.00241%2.30 0.6–0.9xG X2Hungary or draw 73%@1.36
Portugal Denmark 159%1.48X21%4.75220%5.50 2.1–1.3xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 64%@1.48
Northern Ireland Ukraine 147%2.30X28%2.90225%3.00 1.2–0.7xG 1XNorthern Ireland or draw 75%@1.33
Austria Rep. Of Ireland 155%1.57X24%4.00222%5.50 1.8–1.2xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.25
Sweden Bosnia & Herzegovina 153%1.50X25%4.20222%6.00 1.4–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 69%@1.50

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Romania vs Poland?

Our pick is Poland or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Romania vs Poland?

On our numbers Romania have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Poland 60%.

How many goals will there be in Romania vs Poland?

We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Romania vs Poland?

Our predicted score is Romania 1–2 Poland, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.

When is Romania vs Poland?

Romania vs Poland (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.