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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Portugal v Denmark: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe

Portugal

WWWWL
Sat 14 Nov 2026

Denmark

WLWLD
Portugal 59%Draw 21%Denmark 20% Expected goals 2.08 – 1.26
64%
Betarazi pick

Over 2.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.48

6/10Rating
1.48Odds

Picks by market

ResultPortugal to win59% · @1.48
Double chancePortugal or draw80% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score61% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals84% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.35

Portugal vs Denmark: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Denmark travel to face Portugal on Saturday 14 November in the UEFA Nations League – the ball rolls at 20:45 WAT. In the table, Portugal are 1st on 12 points after 4 matches; Denmark are 2nd with 6.

Current form

Portugal, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Norway, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Denmark, last 5: WLWLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Wales, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Portugal, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.7 for Denmark.

Head to head

When they last met (1 Oct 2026) it ended Denmark 2–4 Portugal.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Portugal 2.1 xG, Denmark 1.3 xG – a total near 3.3. That is an open game on paper: 64% for three or more goals, 61% for GG.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Portugal 59%, draw 21%, Denmark 20%.
  • Lower-risk option: Portugal or draw (80%) at 1.14.
  • GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.62.

Betarazi verdict

Our call: Over 2.5 goals (64%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: Portugal 2–1 Denmark. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Portugal59%fair 1.70 · @1.48
Draw21%fair 4.66 · @4.75
Denmark20%fair 5.04 · @5.50
3.34Expected goals
2.08Portugal xG
1.26Denmark xG
61%Both score
64%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–110%
1–19%
2–08%
1–07%
3–17%
2–26%

From our goals model: Portugal 2.1 – 1.3 Denmark expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

PortugalDenmark
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average+31%+21%
Goals conceded vs average-8%+24%
Our expected goals here1.981.36

Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPortugal to win59%1.701.48
Double chancePortugal or draw80%1.251.14
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score61%1.651.62
Draw no betPortugal (draw no bet)75%1.34–
Asian handicapDenmark +1.5 (Asian handicap)66%1.51–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals84%1.191.14
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals64%1.561.48
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals57%1.741.62
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals75%1.331.25
First team to scorePortugal to score first60%1.66–
Half-time resultPortugal ahead at half-time42%2.36–
Half-time / full-timeHT Portugal / FT Portugal36%2.80–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110%10.35–

Recent results

Portugal – last 6

WWWWLW
4 Octvs Norway2–1W
1 Oct@ Denmark4–2W
27 Sep@ Norway2–1W
24 Sepvs Wales1–0W
6 Julvs Spain0–1L
3 Julvs Croatia2–1W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Denmark – last 6

WLWLDW
4 Oct@ Wales1–0W
1 Octvs Portugal2–4L
27 Sepvs Wales2–0W
24 Sep@ Norway2–3L
3 Jun@ Congo DR0–0D
26 Marvs FYR Macedonia4–0W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

1 Oct 2026Denmark v Portugal2–4
Portugal vs Denmark head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Portugal4400+512
2Denmark420206
3Wales4103-33
4Norway4103-23

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
Kosovo Israel 152%1.85X28%3.40221%4.20 1.3–0.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.33
Norway Wales 163%1.22X20%7.00217%10.00 1.7–1.0xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 63%@1.67
Georgia Hungary 127%3.30X32%3.00241%2.30 0.6–0.9xG X2Hungary or draw 73%@1.36
Northern Ireland Ukraine 147%2.30X28%2.90225%3.00 1.2–0.7xG 1XNorthern Ireland or draw 75%@1.33
Austria Rep. Of Ireland 155%1.57X24%4.00222%5.50 1.8–1.2xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.25
Romania Poland 118%3.90X22%3.50260%1.90 1.0–2.2xG X2Poland or draw 82%@1.25
Sweden Bosnia & Herzegovina 153%1.50X25%4.20222%6.00 1.4–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 69%@1.50

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Portugal vs Denmark?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.

Who will win Portugal vs Denmark?

On our numbers Portugal have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Denmark 20%.

How many goals will there be in Portugal vs Denmark?

We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Portugal vs Denmark?

Our predicted score is Portugal 2–1 Denmark, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.

When is Portugal vs Denmark?

Portugal vs Denmark (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.